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Bitcoin (BTC$68,131.79) is struggling to build upward momentum, even as a key “panic gauge” has pulled back from early-month highs, suggesting some renewed stability in market expectations.
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility—an annualised measure of expected price swings over the next four weeks—has dropped to 52%, according to Volmex. The decline reverses an early-month spike when the index rose from roughly 48% to nearly 100% as bitcoin fell to nearly $60,000.
The receding volatility indicates that panic has ebbed, with investors appearing less focused on options hedging and less willing to chase protection as aggressively as during the crash.
Implied volatility is derived from options pricing. Options are derivatives that can be used to hedge or express views on price movement: call options are tied to upside volatility, while put options offer protection against downside moves. Changes in options demand can therefore influence implied volatility.
“Implied volatility has dropped, and deleveraging is running out of steam,” analysts at Bitfinex said in an email to CoinDesk, adding that the market is showing newfound stability and an ebbing of panic.
Despite the volatility pullback, bitcoin remains under pressure, trading just under $68,000 at press time, down 1.2% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data. The early-month sell-off bottomed near $60,000 on Feb. 6 and sparked a recovery, but prices have not moved sustainably above $70,000 since.
Bitfinex analysts pointed to this as evidence of weak demand.
“Funding rates have yet to show appetite for aggressive re-leveraging and derivatives markets support the view of a stabilization rather than renewed buying,” Bitfinex analysts explained.
Funding rates in bitcoin perpetual futures are periodic payments exchanged between long and short traders to keep the contract price aligned with spot. A positive funding rate means longs pay shorts, typically signaling more bullish positioning; a negative rate suggests a bias toward shorts.
While implied volatility has fallen sharply, funding rates in BTC perpetuals remain just above zero. This points to a mild bullish lean among traders, but not aggressive re-leveraging.
Institutional demand has also been weak. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded a net outflow of $677.98 million this month, extending a three-month streak of redemptions, according to SoSoValue data.
Battered bulls may find support in a cooling inflation backdrop and lower real yields, which can benefit risk assets and non-yielding instruments like bitcoin.
Last week’s data showed the consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 2.4% year-on-year in January, from 2.7% in December. This strengthens expectations for at least two 25 basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
Meanwhile, the real (inflation-adjusted) yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.8%, the lowest since Dec. 1. A decline in real yields often encourages investors to increase exposure to assets such as bitcoin.
“Lower real yields reduce the relative carry disadvantage of non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, while a softer dollar supports global liquidity conditions,” Bitfinex analysts noted.
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