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A crypto analyst has warned traders against buying Bitcoin (BTC) at new highs, arguing that a continued rise does not necessarily mean the broader bear market has ended. He suggested the move could instead reflect a distribution phase, potentially setting up a deeper correction and a market bottom near $40,000.
On X, analyst @Sherlockwhale cautioned traders who expect Bitcoin to move smoothly through the $83,000–$88,000 range without resistance. He said this zone shows more sell pressure than other levels in BTC’s current chart structure.
The analyst pointed to the average cost basis for US Spot Bitcoin ETF holders, which he estimated at around $87,830. He said investors who bought the ETF over the past two years are still underwater, and if BTC returns to the upper $80,000 range, many could break even and sell—potentially increasing selling pressure.
He also cited the short-term holder cost basis at approximately $80,100. According to him, when Bitcoin trades above this level, it has historically formed a local top because short-term holders exit at a profit. He said this pattern has occurred twice already, and each time was followed by a sharp pullback.
@Sherlockwhale warned that another rally toward the $80,000 area could trigger a similar wave of selling. He characterized buying around $85,000 as risky, suggesting it could become a bull trap rather than the start of a sustained new uptrend.
The analyst predicted Bitcoin could crash toward $40,000, which he described as a possible final bottom before a new bull trend begins.
Instead of buying near $85,000, he urged investors to wait until October to enter the market, saying prices during that period would offer the most favorable long-term buying opportunity for traders.
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