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Crypto remains “stuck in a headline driven market,” according to Coinbase Institutional’s Head of Research, who said traders are reacting to fast-moving developments around Iran and broader geopolitical risk.
Speaking on the Milk Road Show, the executive said the market can be influenced by news that does not persist long enough to shape longer-term positioning. “You could get a headline at breakfast that really won't carry over at dinner time,” he said.
The research head said Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities peaked near 65% in February but has eased in recent weeks, suggesting crypto may be starting to trade on its own drivers rather than simply tracking stocks.
He listed several factors that are shaping those crypto-specific drivers:
Coinbase’s investor survey showed a split view among participants. Some investors believe crypto is already in a deep bear cycle, while others still see Bitcoin as undervalued.
The executive also pushed back on the idea that long-term Bitcoin holders are dumping supply. Coinbase Institutional has not seen major selling pressure hitting exchanges, he said. Instead, wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days increased their balances during Q1.
On institutions, he said the trend remains constructive. Major financial players including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock continue to build crypto products, ranging from ETFs to covered-call strategies and tokenized asset infrastructure.
He also cited survey data indicating that 65% of investors Coinbase surveyed in January still wanted to allocate more capital to crypto.
Ethereum is building a stronger narrative after concerns that Layer-2 networks would drain value from the base chain.
He said lower fees, AI-agent commerce, and quantum-security work are helping ETH regain investor attention. According to Duong, Ethereum previously lacked a clear investment story but now appears to be finding one.
Coinbase Institutional’s Q2 stance is neutral, but not bearish. The near-term setup could improve if Treasury spending boosts liquidity in May and financial conditions become more favorable for risk assets.
The wildcard remains geopolitics. If headlines cool, crypto could find a bottom; if escalation hits, Bitcoin may stay trapped in its current range.
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