Bitcoin Surges Past Gold and the S&P 500 Following Major Global Disruptions, Research Reveals

Research conducted by Brazilian cryptocurrency platform Mercado Bitcoin suggests that Bitcoin has repeatedly outperformed gold and the S&P 500 during the two-month periods following major global disruptions. The findings were led by Rony Szuster, research director at Mercado Bitcoin, who analyzed 60-day performance windows after events including the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and escalations in U.S. trade policy.

Bitcoin’s stronger two-month performance after major shocks

After the Trump administration’s comprehensive tariff rollout in April 2025, Bitcoin rose 24% over the following 60 days. Over the same period, gold increased 8%, while the S&P 500 advanced 4%.

A similar pattern appeared at the start of the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020, when Bitcoin gained 21%, outpacing both gold and the S&P 500.

“It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you already know how it ends,” Szuster said, cautioning against drawing early conclusions about Bitcoin’s response to crises.

Szuster also noted that during periods of stress, market participants often liquidate holdings quickly to secure liquidity, which can temporarily weigh on assets that are typically viewed as defensive.

Current U.S.-Iran tensions: mixed performance across assets

The same framework appears to be playing out during the current U.S.-Iran confrontation. Bitcoin has gained about 2.2%, moving from roughly $65,800 to $67,300.

By comparison, gold—commonly treated as a crisis hedge—has fallen about 11% over the same period, while the S&P 500 has declined 4.4%, marking its sharpest monthly drop since 2022.

Szuster emphasized that Bitcoin has historically been the top-performing asset across the previous decade, even though it remains prone to volatility.

ETF flows: Bitcoin ETFs gaining while gold ETFs see redemptions

ETF specialist James Seyffart said on the Coin Stories podcast that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds could eventually surpass gold ETFs in total assets under management. He pointed to broader portfolio use cases for Bitcoin ETFs, describing Bitcoin as having multiple roles including “digital gold,” a value-preservation instrument, a diversification tool, and a growth-oriented investment.

“Our view is that Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs,” Seyffart said.

March flow data

Flow trends in March align with that view. U.S.-domiciled gold ETFs recorded net redemptions totaling $2.92 billion during the month. In the same period, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net contributions of $1.32 billion.

The largest single-day move in the gold ETF market came on March 4, when the leading U.S. gold ETF experienced a $3 billion outflow—described as the biggest daily redemption in more than two years.

30-day price declines despite divergent ETF activity

Both asset classes have declined over the trailing 30-day period. Bitcoin is down about 8%, while gold has fallen around 8.25%, indicating broadly parallel price movement even as ETF flows diverged.

Historical leadership shifts between gold and Bitcoin

In December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper observed that gold and Bitcoin have historically alternated in relative performance leadership.