Bitcoin Trades 15% Below Critical On-Chain Level After June Selloff

Bitcoin has stabilized after a sharp selloff that coincided with rising geopolitical tensions and a broad retreat in risk assets. While the rebound has eased some of the market stress seen earlier this month, blockchain data suggests investors are still operating under conditions historically associated with bear markets.

On-chain benchmarks point to “discount territory”

On-chain data analytics firm Glassnode’s June 17 market report said bitcoin rebounded after a sharp June decline that pushed prices to their lowest levels in months. Despite the recovery, the asset remains well below the True Market Mean, an on-chain benchmark used to distinguish bull and bear market regimes.

Glassnode estimates the True Market Mean at $77,200, describing it as the average acquisition price of actively transacted coins and a threshold between bear and bull phases. The firm said the metric is currently at $77.2k, roughly 15% above spot near $65.6k, placing the market in discount territory.

Recent buyers still face unrealized losses

Glassnode said recent buyers remain under pressure even after the bounce. The Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) improved from 0.81 to 0.90, but it remained below the 1.0 break-even threshold. The cohort’s estimated cost basis was near $72,600, leaving newer holders with unrealized losses of roughly 10%.

Profitability remains weak

Profitability data also stayed soft. The 30-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio was 0.53, indicating realized losses continued to outweigh gains.

Capital flows improve, but remain negative

Conditions for a stronger recovery have not yet been met. Glassnode reported that capital flows have improved but are still negative. Realized Cap fell 1.45% over 90 days to $1.07 trillion, though the seven-day change improved to -0.18%, suggesting outflows have slowed.

What would signal a transition to a pre-bull phase

Glassnode said a credible transition to a pre-bull phase requires specific, measurable changes across multiple indicators: a reclaim of the True Market Mean near $77.2k, Short-Term Holder MVRV back above 1.0, and Realized Cap turning positive on the 90-day horizon.

As of June 17, Glassnode said all three indicators remained below those levels: bitcoin was still below the True Market Mean, Short-Term Holder MVRV was under 1.0, and Realized Cap continued to contract over the 90-day period.

Market structure shows some stabilization

Beyond on-chain metrics, market structure showed signs of stabilization. Binance order book data indicated buy-side liquidity exceeded resting sell orders by the widest margin in months after bitcoin approached $60,000, suggesting stronger demand to absorb supply during periods of weakness.