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Bitcoin opened the new week in red, dropping by 0.50% to around $68,130. The cryptocurrency remained above a key moving-average support level and was still well above the local low of $59,930 set two weeks ago.
Bitcoin’s downside momentum stalled late last week after a softer-than-expected inflation release shifted the macro outlook.
Through Thursday, the cryptocurrency fell roughly 7.5%, briefly slipping below the $65,000 level as traders reacted to a stronger-than-expected January jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose 130,000 versus forecasts for 65,000, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings increased 0.4%.
The jobs data initially reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, weighing on risk assets broadly. However, sentiment turned on Friday after the Consumer Price Index showed headline inflation rising 0.2% month over month, below expectations.
Annual CPI eased to 2.4%, while core inflation held at 2.5%, its lowest level since April 2021. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 2-year yield sliding toward 3.4% and the 10-year yield near 4.06%, easing financial conditions and helping Bitcoin rebound quickly from weekly lows.
This week’s macro focus centers on the FOMC minutes and Friday’s Core PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge.
At the Jan. 28 meeting, policymakers kept the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Traders are expected to scrutinize the minutes for how officials are balancing a still-firm labor market against cooling inflation, including implications for the timing of the next policy move.
Core PCE is due Friday, Feb. 20. A softer print could reinforce the post-CPI decline in yields and help sustain risk appetite. A re-acceleration in inflation would likely revive “higher-for-longer” pricing.
For Bitcoin, the transmission mechanism is direct: a softer Core PCE reading could push Treasury yields lower and support BTC’s rebound structure, while a hotter print may reinforce higher-for-longer rate expectations, tighten liquidity conditions, and pressure upside momentum.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin appears to be forming a bear pennant after its sharp drop from the $90,000 area toward sub-$65,000 levels.
The initial selloff is described as the flagpole, while recent consolidation between converging trendlines reflects weakening upside momentum. Volume has tapered during the consolidation phase, which is consistent with pennant patterns.
If BTC breaks below the lower trendline support in the $66,000–$67,000 zone, the measured-move target points toward the $54,000 region, aligning with prior horizontal demand. A breakout above the upper boundary would invalidate the setup and could delay further downside.
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