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Bitcoin’s return above $80,000 has drawn attention from market analysts, with trading firm Wintermute raising concerns about what is driving the move.
While the price milestone marks the first time BTC has traded at this level since January, Wintermute warns that the rally may not be as solid as it appears on the surface.
Bitcoin climbed to approximately $83,000 last week, breaking above its 200-day moving average for the first time in seven months.
The move coincided with a broader equity rally. The Nasdaq rose 4.5% and the S&P 500 gained 2.3% to fresh all-time highs. U.S. nonfarm payrolls also beat expectations, coming in at 115,000 versus a consensus of 65,000.
Wintermute, however, pointed to derivatives positioning as a key factor behind BTC’s price action. Open interest in Bitcoin futures increased from $48 billion to $58 billion over the past month, while spot trading volumes fell to two-year lows.
On X, Wintermute described the dynamic as follows: “BTC ground above $70k, nobody believed it, shorts piled in, got liquidated, and had to be covered by buying.”
Funding rates remain predominantly short, which means additional squeeze pressure could still push prices higher. At the same time, Wintermute cautioned that forced covering is not the same as genuine market conviction.
Beyond the short-term setup, Wintermute highlighted longer-term indicators that are more constructive. Bitcoin ETF flows added $623 million during the period, and Morgan Stanley’s new BTC ETF pulled in $194 million in its first month without a single day of outflows.
The firm also cited exchange reserves at seven-year lows, suggesting steady accumulation by long-term holders. Wintermute said whale accumulation and ETF inflows continue to absorb supply at current levels.
However, it also noted that the institutional bid can shrink as prices rise, which may limit upside pressure over time.
Attention is now turning to macroeconomic events. Tuesday’s CPI release will provide the first clear read on how energy prices have fed into inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s term ends Thursday, with Kevin Warsh’s confirmation expected to follow.
Wintermute said that if Bitcoin holds above $80,000 through a macro shock, it would serve as confirmation of a genuine trend change. A selloff aligned with equities, by contrast, would suggest the short squeeze was the primary driver.
Wintermute also flagged technical and demand conditions: the RSI is entering overbought territory, and spot demand would need to step in for the rally to hold.
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