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Cryptoquant data shows bitcoin’s 20% rally in April, lifting the price from $66,000 to $79,000, was driven entirely by perpetual futures demand while spot buying contracted throughout the move—an onchain pattern that raises questions about how durable the gains are.
Cryptoquant’s report says bitcoin’s “apparent demand” metric—measuring the 30-day change in estimated onchain spot buying activity—remained negative for the full duration of April’s price run. Over the same period, perpetual futures demand expanded as speculative traders pushed prices higher using leverage rather than accumulating coins.
Cryptoquant researchers describe the divergence between rising futures activity and contracting spot demand as a key signal that the rally was speculative in nature. When spot demand falls while price rises, the marginal buyer is positioned in derivatives rather than in actual bitcoin.
Cryptoquant’s phased breakdown indicates each stage of April’s rally featured higher perpetual futures demand paired with negative spot apparent demand. The pattern was not simply spot buyers lagging behind and then catching up; spot demand actively contracted as futures activity increased.
Market strategists at Cryptoquant add that rallies with this structure tend to be self-limiting. Without fresh spot demand to absorb higher prices, the unwind of futures positioning becomes a primary driver of the next decline.
Cryptoquant draws a direct comparison to the early stages of the 2022 bear market, when perpetual futures demand expanded in isolation while spot apparent demand stayed in contraction. The firm says that setup preceded a multi-month price decline and that its onchain demand decomposition approach has identified the same demand signature as an early indicator of price fragility across cycles.
Bitcoin has already started to pull back from the April high. After reaching $79,000, the price slipped to $75,000. As of Saturday, May 2, BTC was trading just above $78,000 after attempting to break toward $80,000 again.
Cryptoquant’s Bull Score Index also deteriorated during April, falling from 50 to 40 by month’s end. The index briefly reached 50—neutral territory—in mid-April, but slid to 40 despite the 20% price gain during that stretch. Cryptoquant characterizes a score of 40 as bearish conditions, historically associated with continued price weakness.
The Bull Score is a composite index built from multiple onchain and market indicators, scaled from 0 to 100. Scores above 50 indicate bullish conditions, while scores below 50 indicate bearish conditions.
The report notes that market action has coincided with the U.S.-Iran conflict and related geopolitical developments. It also references an alert from the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) warning that digital asset payments tied to the Strait of Hormuz can create sanctions exposure.
Cryptoquant concludes that without a shift in apparent demand from negative to positive territory, any move back toward the $79,000 local peak is unlikely to have the on-chain support needed for a sustained breakout.
While the data does not guarantee a repeat of 2022’s prolonged downturn, Cryptoquant says the current demand structure matches the historical profile of price fragility rather than accumulation.
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