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Bitcoin traders hoping the top crypto asset has already marked its bottom for the cycle may be disappointed, according to a new report from CryptoQuant.
The firm’s weekly report argues that traders should remain patient, saying bear market bottoms “take time to form.” CryptoQuant points to $55,000 as the “true bottom” for BTC.
“Bitcoin’s ultimate bear market bottom is around $55K today,” the report reads. “This level represents the realized price, which historically has been a major price support area in previous bear markets.”
CryptoQuant’s analysis centers on the realized price, a metric that tracks the average price at which investors have purchased a cryptocurrency. The firm says this level has been reached during both of the last two bear market bottoms.
“Once the price gets to this level, it tends to gravitate around it for 4-6 months,” the firm wrote.
CryptoQuant’s view aligns with other analyses published in recent weeks. Galaxy’s head of research cited Bitcoin’s lack of near-term catalysts and structural weakness, suggesting BTC could move toward its 200-week moving average near $58,000.
Separately, Standard Chartered updated its forecast earlier this week, indicating BTC could fall to $50,000 before any rebound toward $100,000.
On the prediction market side, Myriad—operated by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan—shows expectations that Bitcoin could drop to $55,000 before a move up to $84,000. As of Saturday morning, the implied probability for the $84,000 outcome was about 54%.
Despite the bearish framing from multiple sources, BTC has risen 1.6% over the past 24 hours and was trading around $69,724 at the time of reporting.
At that level, Bitcoin is down about 27% over the last 30 days and has fallen nearly 45% from its October all-time high of $126,080.
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