Dogecoin Breaks Down Against Bitcoin: BTC Pair Collapse Signals Potential Drop to $0.07

Dogecoin is showing renewed weakness as its DOGE/BTC pair breaks down sharply, pushing the market structure into bearish territory. With momentum fading and key support levels failing, traders are now focusing on whether the DOGE/USDT pair can confirm a broader sell-off.

BTC Pair Breakdown Sparks Dogecoin Bearish Bias

Umair Crypto’s analysis points to a notable breakdown in the DOGE/BTC market, where the pair reportedly hit a 68-day low and breached critical support. While the overall bias remains bearish, the USDT pair is still viewed as necessary to trigger a wider move lower.

On-chain data cited in the report showed a whale moving 327 million Dogecoin off Robinhood. That activity coincided with a brief 1% relief bounce to $0.092. Despite this localized strength, momentum indicators are described as weakening across the board.

Absent a significant catalyst—such as a renewed Elon Musk-related development or a government initiative—the technical breakdown in the BTC pair is expected to set the tone. The report adds that once USDT support breaks officially, the path may open for a move toward the 7-cent range.

Elliott Wave Theory Maps The Bigger Picture

CG Trades’ macro update links the current setup to the 2024 rally and subsequent reversal. The report describes Dogecoin’s 2024 surge as nearly 500% from its lows, producing an overall 6x move and about a 5x gain from a weekly breakout entry. It also characterizes that period as one of the strongest altcoin performances in the cycle.

Since December 2024, however, momentum has reportedly flipped. Dogecoin has been under pressure, declining alongside the broader altcoin market, consistent with earlier warnings that the euphoric run-up was cooling.

Using Elliott Wave Theory, the structure is presented as a long-term cycle unfolding. Wave 1 is said to have completed around the January 2018 altcoin peak. Wave 2 is described as occurring in March 2020 after a retest of the long-term trendline. Wave 3 is noted as peaking in May 2021, while the market is currently either completing Wave 4 in June 2022 or still finalizing it near the $0.061349 support zone.

Under this framework, the anticipated Wave 5 could drive a major expansion, with a projected target around $1.41. The report characterizes this as roughly a 15x move from current levels, or up to 23x if price revisits the $0.061349 region before rallying. It also states that a monthly close below $0.061349 would invalidate the macro bullish outlook and indicate a deeper structural shift.