Dow Jones and S&P 500: US stocks mixed as oil surge rattles indices forecast

U.S. stock indexes finished Thursday mixed, but the session underscored heightened uncertainty ahead of today’s Good Friday market break. Stocks opened sharply lower after President Trump signaled tougher action against Iran the night before, a move that pushed oil prices higher and weighed on investor sentiment early in the session. Shortly after the weak cash-market open, however, the indexes began to recover.

As the day progressed, early losses eased on signs of diplomacy that helped calm fears of a longer U.S.-Iran conflict. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.13%, the S&P 500 rose 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.18%.

Oil prices drive early market pressure

The main pressure came from a sudden jump in crude prices tied to escalating Middle East tensions. U.S. benchmark WTI crude surged about 11% to around $111 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude climbed near $108. Investors also expressed concern that higher energy costs could filter into business expenses and consumer prices.

Deferred contracts shift focus

Despite the move in nearby oil prices, attention appeared to shift toward deferred futures rather than the cash market. October WTI was priced closer to $75, a level that helped ease concerns among some investors by suggesting the disruption may be temporary rather than long-lasting.

Diplomacy improves sentiment

Market sentiment improved later in the session after Iran signaled it was working with Oman to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a route used for 20% of global oil shipments. The development appeared to change how investors framed the situation, treating the war risk and the reopening/management of the Strait as separate developments.

International pressure questions emerge

Additional reports said Britain was discussing ways with multiple countries to reduce tensions in the region. Investors were weighing whether this signals a shift in international support for Trump’s approach, and whether peace negotiations are continuing. While no major change to Trump’s plans was apparent, ongoing talks and the improved diplomatic tone were cited as factors behind the midday recovery from the session’s worst levels. Still, conviction appeared weak.

Volatility eased during the session, with the VIX dipping to 23.87, a move that indicated some stress was being relieved.

Technical outlook: Dow remains under pressure

Technically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is described as being in a downtrend. The trend would shift to up if the market can regain the 200-day moving average at 46717.01. Thursday’s close at 46504.68 placed the Dow in a position to challenge that level early Monday.

The article also outlined a potential path for a rally if the 200-day moving average is overcome, pointing to a retracement zone at 47785.04 to 48428.79. Within that zone, the 50-day moving average at 48171.79 was cited as a resistance point.

On the bearish side, failure to reclaim the 200-day moving average would be interpreted as evidence of buyers absorbing selling pressure, while a trade through 45057.28 would reaffirm the downtrend.

Weekly performance and what to watch over the holiday

Thursday’s mixed finish did not erase a stronger broader backdrop: it was the first weekly gain in six weeks. With markets closed Friday, traders are expected to focus on Middle East headlines and economic data over the long weekend, with Monday’s open described as likely to be notable.