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Ethereum is trading more than 53% below its August 2025 peak of $4,950, even as the broader crypto market has rebounded in recent weeks. On-chain data points to a key driver: large holders have been reducing exposure, raising the question of whether retail or institutional inflows can offset the supply pressure.
Large holders—wallets carrying between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH—changed their behavior after Ethereum reached its all-time high in mid-2025. According to the data cited, these whales increased their combined holdings from 12.95 million ETH to 15.95 million ETH over several months, before reversing course.
Since October, the cohort has dumped 21.5% of its holdings, bringing total whale holdings down to 12.52 million ETH. That reduction equates to roughly 3.4 million ETH sold into the market, coinciding with Ethereum’s inability to sustain levels above $2,400 and its failure to mount a move toward $3,000.
Spot Ethereum ETFs broke a five-month losing streak in April, attracting $355 million. May also began positively, with an additional $170 million flowing in during the first week.
However, the broader ETF picture remains weaker than the earlier peak. Total net inflows for the year are just above $12 billion, compared with an October 2025 peak of roughly $15 billion. The implication in the source material is that ETF buyers have not replaced the volume sold by whales.
Early October 2025 is described as the turning point, when whales stopped buying and began selling. The change is characterized as rapid and aligned with Ethereum’s failure to hold its highs. The article frames whale distribution as a market-structure factor that tends to precede price action in crypto.
It also notes that the ETF inflows seen in April and May provided a short-lived improvement, but that $525 million over six weeks is not sufficient to counter a multi-billion-dollar whale exodus.
Ethereum has faced repeated resistance around $2,400, described as a ceiling rather than a floor. The source ties this to the supply overhang created by whale distribution and argues that breaking above $2,400 would require more sustained capital inflows than what has recently been observed.
Since August, Ethereum’s price decline is described as a 53% drop from $4,950 to current levels around $2,300. The rebound attempts have been weak, with sellers appearing each time ETH approaches $2,400.
The article argues that Ethereum needs a catalyst to bring in demand at scale, noting possibilities such as a major protocol upgrade, a macro shift that improves institutional appeal, or a broader market move that lifts altcoins. It concludes that, based on the recent data presented, neither retail nor institutional demand appears ready to fill the gap created by whale selling.
Whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH reduced their positions by 21.5%, selling roughly 3.4 million ETH and bringing their total holdings down to 12.52 million tokens.
ETFs attracted $355 million in April and $170 million in early May, breaking a five-month outflow streak, but total year-to-date inflows remain below the October 2025 peak of $15 billion.
Ethereum faces consistent resistance around $2,400, unable to hold above that level for extended periods despite broader market rebounds in recent weeks.
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