From gold price swings to tungsten: Masan High-Tech Materials (MSR) benefits as capital flows move away from safe havens to strategic assets

Risk is increasingly showing up beyond trading floors, extending into supply chains and production capacity. Against this backdrop, the metals market is displaying a sharp divergence: gold is retreating while tungsten is rallying to levels not seen in years.

Gold slides as real yields and policy expectations stay restrictive

Global gold prices have fallen by more than 20% from their late-January peak, with the move occurring alongside a stronger US dollar and US Treasury yields that have remained elevated. Market expectations are that the US Federal Reserve will find it difficult to loosen policy because inflation pressures are still considered sticky.

Geopolitical tensions and conflicts are also contributing to a different transmission mechanism than the traditional safe-haven narrative. Rather than only boosting demand for protection, they are associated with higher energy prices, higher inflation expectations, and therefore higher yields. In such an environment, gold’s opportunity cost rises: even though it remains a safe-haven asset, higher real yields make it less attractive.

Tungsten surges on supply constraints and strategic demand

In contrast to gold, tungsten’s rally is described as being driven less by sentiment and more by a material supply story. Prices of APT, the tungsten benchmark product, have risen from below $500/mtu in 2025 to a current range of $2,000–$2,500/mtu—an increase of several hundred percent in just over a year. Some related products, including ferro-tungsten, have climbed multiple times from earlier levels.

The key factor is a squeeze on supply. China, which accounts for more than 80% of global tungsten supply, is tightening mining quotas and export controls on strategic minerals, tightening availability in international markets.

Demand, meanwhile, is said to be holding up. Tungsten remains important for precision engineering, energy, semiconductors and defense—sectors described as entering a new investment cycle. The article frames this as part of a broader shift in capital flows, where markets increasingly price two kinds of risk: financial risk and supply-chain risk.

Strategic stockpiling plans underscore the “security infrastructure” theme

In the US, the federal government has proposed a strategic-metal stockpiling program called Project Vault, with about $12 billion to build reserves for critical industries including defense, energy and high-tech manufacturing. The article also notes that the European Union, Australia and Korea are pursuing stockpiling and diversification policies, given that strategic-metal supply chains—including tungsten—remain heavily dependent on China.

Impact on Masan High-Tech Materials (MSR) and the tungsten cycle

Behind the Nui Pháo mine is Masan High-Tech Materials (MSR), which the article describes as participating in the global tungsten value chain from mining to deep processing. It links the company’s performance to the tightening of supply and the resulting metal price cycle.

In 2025, MSR reported tungsten revenue of VND 4.458 trillion, up 33% year-over-year, described as the main driver of revenue diversification. The article also cites a market backdrop in which tungsten’s average price rose to around $500 in 2025 and climbed to around $2,500 by early 2026.

2026 guidance, profit targets, and potential re-rating via listing move

For 2026, MSR guided revenue of VND 16,000–20,300 billion and expected after-tax profit of VND 1,700–2,500 billion. The article presents this as reflecting both commodity price expectations and MSR’s increasingly clear role within the global tungsten supply chain.

From a capital-markets perspective, the article highlights that MSR is planning to present at its upcoming AGM a plan to move its listing to HOSE. It notes that relocating listings can broaden access to institutional funds, including large funds and foreign investors, particularly when the market narrative shifts from commodity prices to capital flows.