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With the Hormuz Strait facing a blockade amid intensifying Middle East tensions, energy security has become central to Vietnam’s ability to sustain its growth trajectory. To maintain its goal of two-digit growth, Vietnam needs both immediate contingency measures and a longer-term strategy for fuel stockpiling and a roadmap for a sustainable energy transition.
At the forum “Hormuz Shock: The Energy Security Challenge for Vietnam,” organized by Vietnam Economy/VnEconomy on the morning of April 17, 2026, speakers said the conflict is no longer only a geopolitical issue. The Hormuz chokepoint is a key gateway for global energy flows, and blocking it has disrupted the supply chain.
Speakers cited that the Hormuz chokepoint supports global flows of more than 20 million barrels of crude oil and roughly 305–310 million cubic meters of LPG. For an economy with a high degree of openness—about 200%—securing steady fuel supplies is described as a prerequisite for macroeconomic stability and national security.
Prof. Dr. Pham Hoang Luong, senior lecturer at Hanoi University of Technology and vice president of the Vietnam Clean Energy Association, characterized the disruption as the largest in the world’s oil and gas supply chain in history. He said the Asia-Pacific region is the hardest hit, with up to 83% of crude oil and 84% of LPG originating from the Middle East. Vietnam imports about 85% of its crude oil from the region, mainly Kuwait, to supply domestic refineries.
As the disruption unfolded, prices rose. Brent crude, after an initial spike, later cooled to roughly 101–102 USD per barrel, but inflationary pressures persisted. The analysis highlighted a potential “shock inflation loop” operating through three channels: higher transportation costs, higher production input costs, and inflation expectations that can lead households to hoard and firms to raise prices.
In March 2026, Vietnam’s CPI increased 4.65% year-on-year, exceeding the 4.5% target set by the National Assembly. This leaves policymakers balancing inflation control with the need to ensure enough energy to support GDP growth above 10%.
Speakers also pointed to an “unprecedented” feature of the crisis: a near-complete lack of ready substitutes for reported daily oil shortfalls of 10–20 million barrels. Vietnam’s efforts to stabilize prices by zeroing out certain environmental taxes have not prevented diesel prices from doubling, adding pressure to logistics and industrial production costs.
To mitigate direct risks, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) and key oil traders have activated flexible contingency plans. Nguyen Anh Tuan, head of the Domestic Oil and Gas Business Management division, said supply remains under control due to combined domestic production and imports.
He said Nghi Son and Dung Quất refineries currently meet more than 70% of domestic demand, while the remaining 30% is covered by imports diversified by companies including Petrolimex.
Tuan added that MOIT, in coordination with the Ministry of Finance, has brought environmental and special consumption taxes to 0% and activated an 8,000 billion VND budget package to stabilize prices and cushion the shock to the economy.
On the corporate side, Petrolimex was highlighted for committing not to constrain sales volumes despite risk aversion. Luong said the group signed long-term contracts for 70% of 2026 demand as early as late 2025.
For urgent needs, Petrolimex is prepared to reroute shipments from its Singapore trading arm to Vietnam or broaden sourcing to markets further afield, including the United States and Canada, to fill gaps from the Middle East.
A key measure discussed is the rollout of biofuel E10 from June 1, 2026. It is presented as a dual-purpose solution: reducing dependence on imported mineral gasoline by about 10% and accelerating emission reduction, while supporting consumer acceptance through insurance coverage and safety testing on popular vehicle fleets.
Speakers emphasized that long-term resilience requires a national strategic petroleum reserve. Luong referenced stockpile benchmarks from Japan (about 354 days) and China (about 120 days), alongside an IEA recommendation of 90 days. He said building a reserve at Nghi Son is a prudent step but needs to be accelerated.
Luong proposed a government role that combines public funding with private sector storage capacity. He said governments should delegate storage and stock management to leading fuel companies with existing logistics networks to ensure flexibility and reliability, noting that fuel stocks can degrade after 3–6 months. A public-private stock system was described as better able to intervene in the market when needed.
Another issue raised for retailers was low discounts, at times reaching zero. Bui Ngoc Bao of the Vietnamese Petroleum Association (Vinainpet) said he has led efforts with sector ministries to draft a new decree to replace Decree 83/2014/ND-CP, aiming for a more market-oriented framework and reduced red tape to improve discounts and reduce losses for firms.
In closing remarks, experts and regulators emphasized efficiency, self-reliance, diversification, and flexibility. They said the energy crisis is both a challenge and an opportunity for Vietnam to strengthen its energy-security framework and lay a foundation for future development.
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