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Bitcoin’s bullish market structure over the past three weeks has produced a “cleared risk landscape” signal, according to Glassnode, a market intelligence firm, potentially pointing to an extension of the rally—though analysts cautioned that investors still face notable geopolitical and macroeconomic risks.
Glassnode’s Risk Index—a proprietary metric that quantifies systemic risk on a scale of 0 to 100—was reported to be hovering at zero, the lowest possible level, in a Thursday Telegram post. The firm said the index also serves as a primary gauge of market health, with a 25 threshold distinguishing between low- and high-risk regimes.
In addition, Glassnode’s Moderate Strategy—which captures upside momentum and exits when conviction fades—flipped from Moderate to High Confidence.
Analysts told Decrypt that the alignment of these models suggests a bullish regime, supported by sustained inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) and aggressive demand from spot buyers.
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, said the current setup is “an excellent window for strategic accumulation rather than chasing deeper dips,” adding that the firm maintains strong conviction for a positive close to 2026. She attributed that view to improving market structure and institutional conviction that could drive Bitcoin to a new all-time high.
Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, said bullish bets are likely to continue as the US-Iran conflict subsides.
Bitcoin reached $79,388 on Wednesday, its highest level in over three months.
Investor sentiment has also improved. The Fear and Greed Index rose from extreme fear at the start of April to fear.
On Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users assigned a 74% chance that Bitcoin extends its rally toward $84,000, compared with 62% at the start of the week. For Ethereum, users assigned a 54% chance that the second-largest crypto by market cap moves to $3,000.
Zhang said breaking and holding above $80,000 would serve as a major technical and psychological catalyst, potentially clearing the path for recovery toward $90,000 and possibly $100,000.
According to CoinGecko data, both assets were lower over the past 24 hours: Bitcoin down 0.5% and Ethereum down 2.9%. Bitcoin was trading around $77,800, while Ethereum was around $2,330.
Despite the cleared risk indicator and bullish developments, analysts said investors should remain cautious.
Mei cited risks including the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, restriction of oil flows, and elevated inflation that could lead to rate hikes. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key concern, experts told Decrypt.
Glassnode also highlighted profit and positioning data. The firm said 54% of recent buyers are now in profit. It added that short-term holders’ realized profit has spiked to $4.4 million, a level that has marked every local top in 2026. Glassnode noted this figure is three times a $1.5 million threshold that marked every local top year-to-date, signaling caution in the absence of a meaningful demand catalyst.
Analysts said the missing piece remains a fundamental catalyst—such as the CLARITY Act, Fed rate cuts, or a lasting Middle East truce. Until then, they said the risk landscape may be cleared, but the route above $80,000 is not assured.
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