Global markets hold their breath ahead of gold and crude oil price developments

Global markets saw a volatile session as oil prices surged, gold swung intraday, and equities moved in opposite directions amid escalating geopolitical tensions related to Iran with conflicting signals.

Oil and metals

On April 3, Brent crude rose 7.78% to $109.03 per barrel, while U.S. crude (WTI) jumped as much as 11.41% to $111.54 per barrel. The sharp gains followed remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who said Washington would strike Iran “very hard” in the next two to three weeks. The comments came one day after he said the U.S. could “pull out of Iran fairly quickly,” adding to market noise and uncertainty.

Iran was reportedly drafting a directive with Oman to oversee shipping through the Hormuz Strait, with traffic along the strategic route increasing in recent days.

Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier of BCA Research said that over the last 48 hours Tehran and Washington have issued contradictory signals, with signs that de-escalation may be increasing. The key question for markets is whether the Hormuz Strait will remain open.

Gold and precious metals

Gold prices were volatile over the last 48 hours. On the morning of April 3 (Vietnam time), gold traded around $4,676 per ounce, about $100 above the prior bottom. On April 2, gold briefly rose toward $4,800 per ounce before retreating to $4,553 per ounce, then rebounded. At the close, spot gold fell 1.85% to $4,669.05 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures fell 2.8% to $4,679.70 per ounce.

On April 3, international gold markets largely paused trading amid the Good Friday holiday.

The main driver behind gold’s move was safe-haven demand amid rising tensions in the Middle East. As prices approached a strong resistance zone, short-term profit-taking and movements in the dollar restrained gains.

In the medium to long term, gold remains supported by central bank buying. The World Gold Council reported that central banks continued to accumulate gold in February despite a globally uncertain economic backdrop.

Stocks and currencies

Global stock markets showed a mixed picture. The MSCI All-C Countries World Index fell 0.35% to 993.18. In the U.S., major indices closed mixed ahead of the Easter holiday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.13% to 46,504.67, the S&P 500 rose 0.11% to 6,582.69, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.18% to 21,879.18.

In Europe, STOXX 600 and FTSEurofirst 300 were down about 0.2% despite a late-session rebound in U.S. stocks and a rally in Treasuries. In Asia, markets faced greater pressure, with Korea’s Kospi down 4.7%.

Another notable development was in India, where the central bank banned trading of non-deliverable futures to curb the rupee’s slide, helping the currency rise about 2%, though analysts questioned the sustainability of the rebound.