Gold prices expected to move sideways this week.

Many analysts expect gold to move sideways this week and advise investors to maintain a neutral stance rather than betting on short-term moves. At the end of the week of March 30–April 4, spot gold rose about 3% to above $4,600 per ounce. However, the precious metal faced resistance in the first two sessions of April as it failed to clear the $4,800 per ounce level.

Analyst and trader positioning

In Kitco's weekly survey of 15 analysts, eight analysts—most of the panel—expected gold to move sideways. Four analysts anticipated a bullish move, while three predicted a decline.

Among individual investors, optimistic sentiment is spreading. In 61 online responses, about 59% of traders forecast gold would rise this week, 21% forecast a decline, and the rest expected it to hold steady.

Key price ranges cited

Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart, said gold could move sideways within a broad range of $4,128 to $5,666 per ounce. He pointed to the size of the range—up to $1,500—as evidence of uncertainty, adding that the market may depend on what the U.S. president posts on social media next.

CPM Group's analysts advised investors to stay out of the market in the short term, forecasting gold to trade in a range of $4,100–$4,850 per ounce. They said rising volatility and high uncertainty led them to shift to a “stand aside and observe” approach, waiting for a reasonable bottom to be identified.

Drivers of volatility and near-term outlook

Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, argued that recent gold volatility mainly reflects market expectations of the Iran conflict. He said the market reversed quickly after Donald Trump mentioned the possibility of an attack, with stocks falling, energy rising, and gold slipping. Grady added that in a news-heavy environment with light liquidity ahead of the holiday, investors should maintain a neutral stance rather than betting on short-term fluctuations.

Grady also noted that open interest in the gold market is low and that most positions come from passive commodity index funds.

Bullish views alongside caution

James Stanley, senior strategist at Forex, forecast higher gold prices. He said the long-term trend remains supportive even if equities may set a new low, adding: “I do not want to bet against gold's major uptrend, I will look for buying opportunities when prices pull back.”

Adrian Day, chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management, also forecast higher gold. He cited Turkey's sale of nearly 60 tonnes of gold as one reason for the March decline, saying the information helps reduce uncertainty. Day added that in the longer term, as tensions ease, monetary factors will likely reassert themselves, particularly if central banks ease policy in response to economic weakness.

Bottom line

While multiple factors support gold over the medium and long term, the market is currently characterized by high volatility and uncertainty.