Gold prices hover amid inflation and the outlook for interest rates

Weekly trading from April 6 to 11 saw notable swings in both domestic and global gold markets, with prices repeatedly reversing within a wide range.

Domestic SJC gold: sharp adjustments and reversals

At the start of the week (April 6), domestic firms adjusted the SJC gold price down to 170.1–173.1 million dong per tael (buying–selling), reflecting downside pressure from the international market as world gold prices fell to below 4,610 USD/ounce.

The pressure was linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which pushed energy prices higher and raised inflation concerns. That, in turn, led markets to doubt the ability of central banks to ease policy—an outlook that is negative for gold, a non-yielding asset.

On April 7, SJC gold was nearly flat at around 170.1–173.1 million dong per tael. In the world market, gold prices moved slightly as investors monitored the US–Iran conflict, particularly ahead of the reopening of the Hormuz Strait. Sentiment centered on two themes: the risk of a prolonged conflict and expectations for interest rates. If oil prices continue to rise, inflation pressure could keep the Federal Reserve in a tighter policy stance, reducing gold’s appeal.

On April 8, the market recorded a strong rally. SJC gold increased by 4.5 million dong per tael to 174–177 million dong per tael after news that the US temporarily suspended military actions against Iran for two weeks, easing concerns of a wider confrontation.

However, the rally did not hold. On April 9, domestic gold prices fell sharply by 3.5 million dong per tael to 167.5–171.5 million dong per tael. The decline reflected the market’s quick response to a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran. As the perceived risk of war diminished, demand for safe-haven assets weakened and investors shifted back toward riskier assets. Globally, gold prices stayed high around 4,700 USD/ounce but lost momentum.

On April 10, the domestic market stabilized, with SJC gold trading around 168.5–171.5 million dong per tael. Internationally, gold rose by more than 1% in the previous session to near 4,790 USD/ounce, supported by a weaker USD and cautious investor sentiment.

In the final session of the week (April 11), SJC gold retreated toward the 170 million dong per tael level, trading at 169.4–172.4 million dong per tael. In after-hours trade on April 10 (Vietnam time), spot gold remained broadly firm near 4,761.79 USD/ounce, lifting weekly gains to almost 2%. US gold futures fell slightly by 0.6% to 4,787.40 USD/ounce.

Global spot gold: supported by the USD and geopolitics

On April 8, spot gold rose to nearly 4,800 USD/ounce, extending the rebound from the prior session. Investor sentiment improved as diplomatic signals turned positive, although geopolitical risks had not disappeared.

By April 9, the market’s tone shifted as the temporary ceasefire reduced safe-haven demand. Gold remained elevated globally around 4,700 USD/ounce but with weaker momentum.

On April 10, gold strengthened again, with prices approaching 4,790 USD/ounce, aided by a weaker USD and cautious positioning.

Key drivers and near-term outlook

Across the week, gold trading reflected a balance between opposing forces: a weaker USD and ongoing geopolitical risks supported prices, while expectations that interest rates would remain high limited upside. Looking ahead, developments in the Middle East and US monetary policy are expected to remain the main factors influencing gold prices in the near term.