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Most Wall Street experts and individual investors expect world gold prices to extend their rally for a fifth straight week, rising above $5,000 as a possible ceasefire persists. The global precious metals market posted its fourth consecutive week of gains. Each ounce of gold opened the week around $4,676, then climbed to a high above $4,890 on the final trading day. The rally is mainly supported by developments surrounding the Middle East conflict, including Iran reopening the Hormuz Strait to commercial vessels after a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The news alleviates inflation concerns sparked by surging energy prices. Central banks are also expected to pause monetary tightening, thereby supporting the gold price uptrend. Kitco News weekly survey of Wall Street analysts shows optimism about the near-term price outlook. Eight of ten analysts expect the positive scenario to continue, while only two are cautious. In an online survey of nearly 50 retail investors, 70% are confident gold will move higher. By contrast, 11% expect a range-bound market and 19% anticipate the uptrend continuing. According to Rich Checkan, chairman and CEO of Asset Strategies International (US), gold benefits from the calmer stance of stakeholders in the Middle East. The familiar scenario is that gold rises whenever ceasefire agreements or a de-escalation of conflict occur, and vice versa. "As long as the fragile ceasefire agreements exist, gold and silver will continue to recover," he said. Caption: Gold on display at a shop in Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: Thanh Tung. Gold on display at a shop in Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: Thanh Tung. Similarly, Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive, believes gold is no longer the main focus as in January, but existing drivers could push the metal back to the $5,000 level soon, about 3.5% higher than now. According to him, the gold market previously faced pressure from funds reducing leverage and selling from emerging markets. Emerging economies with gold reserves and oil imports face currency risks during geopolitical tensions, leading to selling to protect their currencies. However, this risk has passed as some large institutions signaled buyback, plus more countries consider larger gold reserves to guard against a repeat. Last week, SPDR Gold Trust (the world's largest gold ETF by assets) bought 13 tons over four sessions. This lifted their gold holdings to above 1,060 tons, the highest in a month and ended a multi-week selling streak. However, not all analysts are bullish. Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, believes the uptrend remains but at a slower pace. He advises investors to be cautious with the "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction. The $4,900 level, according to the expert, coincides with the 50-day moving average (MA50), so if this level is broken, gold could rally to $5,300 in the near term. Conversely, if there is heavy selling here, the uptrend could be broken. "We are leaning more toward the less favorable scenario," he said. In the domestic market, SJC bullion is trading at 168.5 - 172 million VND per tael, while plain rings are around 168 - 171.5 million. Converting at Vietcombank’s rate, global gold is equivalent to 154 million VND per tael. The domestic gold price premium over the world price is about 18 million, down from a record 30 million last month.
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