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Half of the months over the past two years have delivered positive returns for Bitcoin, a pattern an economist said could indicate the cryptocurrency may trade above its current level by December. Economist Timothy Peterson said that 50% of the past 24 months were positive, implying an 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now, according to his post on X on Saturday.
In 2025, Bitcoin posted gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September, while the other six months ended lower, according to CoinGlass. Peterson’s forecast is tied to this historical frequency of positive months.
Peterson also pointed to traders’ positioning on Polymarket, where December is given a 17% chance of being Bitcoin’s best month of 2026, just behind November at 18%. CoinGlass data cited in the article shows that since 2013, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest-performing month on average, with an average return of 41.13%.
Peterson’s forecast comes as Bitcoin trades almost 25% below its level at the beginning of the year, at $68,173 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Analysts are divided on how Bitcoin may perform in the near term. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said on Friday, “I would expect next week to be green for BTC.” He also referenced “finalizing this month with a massive candle and a streak of five red months.”
Other market participants are more cautious. Veteran trader Peter Brand told Magazine that Bitcoin’s “real bottom will not occur until October 2026.”
The forecast arrives as crypto market sentiment continues to decline. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted an “Extreme Fear” score of 9 on Sunday, signaling extreme caution among investors.
At the same time, Santiment said on Friday that the “drying up” of Bitcoin price predictions on social media among crypto market participants is a healthy indicator as sentiment returns to “neutral” territory.
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