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On 19 February, the crypto market turned cautious. Bitcoin remained nearly 46% below its October peak of $126,000, weighing on sentiment as traders reassessed the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.
Traders scaled back expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates at its March meeting. The release of FOMC minutes ended hopes of a near-term shift, with CME FedWatch Tool data showing a 94.1% probability that rates would remain in the 350–375 basis point range.
The message reinforced a “higher for longer” stance. At the same time, the Federal Reserve injected $18.5 billion through overnight repos, one of the largest liquidity injections since 2020. The combination of tighter policy signals and added liquidity created a mixed read for markets, with liquidity support expanding while restraint remained in place—an outcome that unsettled risk assets.
Financial conditions showed a subtle easing alongside the Fed’s liquidity move. However, traders described the situation as a contradiction rather than clarity: policy restraint stayed firm, while liquidity quietly increased. This tension contributed to caution across risk markets.
Regulatory sentiment shifted more aggressively. Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act being signed into law rose to 90%, reflecting stronger political support for formal crypto market structure reform.
A signed Act could reshape institutional confidence by providing clearer market structure. Still, prediction markets reflect belief rather than law, and traders appeared hesitant to treat the odds as certainty.
Since Q4 2025, Bitcoin has underperformed as quantum-related fears resurfaced. Approximately 3.5 million BTC—nearly 18% of total supply—were described as lost or dormant. Market participants worried that even partial recovery, particularly from older wallets with exposed public keys, could alter supply expectations.
Strategy’s CEO Michael Saylor pushed back on the concern, saying:
“The network upgrades, active coins migrate, lost coins stay frozen. Security goes up. Supply comes down. Bitcoin grows stronger.”
As of 1 February, the article cited the following distribution of BTC holdings: about 8.63 million BTC held by retail and other entities, 2.30 million BTC on exchanges, and 1.80 million BTC held by miners.
It also stated that public and private companies controlled about 1.42 million BTC, ETFs and funds held around 1.40 million BTC, and governments held a smaller share.
The article concluded that this positioning “had to hold strong.”
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