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Hilbert Group’s chief investment officer (CIO) says tightening global liquidity is putting pressure on Bitcoin, warning that declines are possible in the near term. In its prediction market pricing, the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 is set at 100% YES, unchanged from a week earlier.
Trading activity around near-term Bitcoin thresholds appears steady across multiple dates, with the market continuing to price in the same outcomes. For example, the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April is reflected consistently at 100% YES across April 14, April 15, and April 16, and the same 100% YES reading persists beyond those dates.
Liquidity and trading intensity also point to an active but not heavily disruptive market. The article cites $8,786 in real USDC traded daily. While order book depth is described as unclear, the lack of significant price jumps suggests a relatively balanced market. The largest recent move mentioned was a 1% shift last week.
With a 100% YES outcome, a YES share pays just 1¢, framing the position as a bet on stability rather than volatility. The CIO’s liquidity-tightening warning could be short-term noise, the article notes, particularly given geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that may be influencing energy prices and inflation.
However, if Hilbert’s forecast holds, the path to higher Bitcoin prices may be slower than previously expected.
The article highlights two key drivers that could quickly change market pricing away from its current 100% readings: shifts in central bank policy, especially from the Federal Reserve, and developments related to Middle East geopolitics.
The following contracts were shown with 100% odds in the article:
The article also references other related stories, including reports that Bitcoin is eyeing a $60K dip in April amid hack fallout and a reported $293 million loss, and coverage of Bitcoin’s moves alongside broader market developments tied to US-Iran tensions.
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