How Vietnamese markets are viewed for MSCI Watchlist inclusion, according to securities firms

In the early hours of June 19, 2026, MSCI released its latest global market access assessment report. Maybank Securities said the overall picture reflects recognition of reform efforts in the management authority’s infrastructure.

MSCI highlights rapid technical relief measures

MSCI’s 2026 review cycle points to the appearance of a series of technical relief measures implemented recently. In 2025, MSCI recorded only two relatively modest factors: an English-language information disclosure roadmap and a short-term non-prefunding mechanism for foreign institutional investors. At that time, MSCI remained cautious, saying more time was needed to validate capital flows.

Key forward-looking progress cited

In the current report period, MSCI praised several forward-looking steps, with Vietnam’s most notable developments including the official implementation of trading through a Global Broker model and progress toward establishing a Central Counterparty (CCP).

MSCI expects the CCP central clearing mechanism to come into operation from early 2027. The assessment links this timeline to expectations of a change in trading methods and improved settlement risk management in the market.

MSCI also noted that market transparency has been strengthened as the English-language disclosure roadmap continues to be applied consistently and strictly.

Another positive point is that the regulator has issued tighter rules to prevent publicly listed companies from voluntarily applying foreign ownership limits below the statutory cap. Enterprises are now expected to clearly disclose these ownership limits before September 2026.

Remaining bottlenecks: ownership limits and market infrastructure

Despite the policy progress, MSCI’s report identifies key bottlenecks that remain unresolved.

Foreign ownership limits remain a major barrier to foreign capital. According to MSCI’s calculations, ownership restrictions directly affect over 10% of Vietnam’s stock market capitalization.

Foreign ownership room criteria also continue to constrain portfolio construction. MSCI said these restrictions affect over 1% of the MSCI Vietnam IMI index weight, making it more difficult for international institutional investors to establish, allocate, and rebalance portfolios in Vietnam.

In addition, MSCI said the clearing and settlement framework has not yet met its stringent standards. The non-prefunding solution that does not require cash collateral is currently viewed as a short-term workaround. MSCI is looking for a more comprehensive and sustainable mechanism once the CCP system is fully operational and demonstrates stability across trading cycles.

MSCI also introduced a new assessment focus this year: the free float ratio on the Vietnamese stock market. The report highlights that the low free-float ratio in some large listed companies is a point of concern.

Maybank Securities: limited likelihood of a Watchlist placement

Maybank Securities offered a cautious view on upgrade prospects, arguing that the likelihood of MSCI placing Vietnam on the Emerging Markets Watchlist during the June 2026 assessment remains limited.

Maybank compared Vietnam’s situation with past upgrade scenarios for markets such as Kuwait or Saudi Arabia. In those cases, before being officially considered for upgrade, markets showed direct improvements in core criteria including clearing and settlement, custody, legal framework, and information flow. Maybank said the changes were reflected not only on paper but also in practical market operations.

For Vietnam, Maybank said the current assessment cycle is still at the direction-and-policy-roadmap stage. It noted that the real-world effectiveness of the CCP central settlement model, the smooth operation of non-margin trading, and the absorption of real capital under foreign ownership restrictions still require more time. As a result, Maybank said any path toward upgrade will require patience from both policymakers and international investors monitoring Vietnam’s market transformation.