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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%, a 0.2 percentage point reduction from the 3.3% forecast issued in January, before the Iran conflict erupted.
The IMF said the outlook for several major economies weakened. The United Kingdom saw the steepest downgrade, with its growth forecast trimmed by 0.5 percentage points to 0.8% for this year.
According to the IMF, the UK outlook worsened mainly due to the impact of the Iran conflict and the Bank of England’s (BoE) projection that interest rates would be cut more slowly than previously expected. The IMF forecast UK growth to recover to 1.3% in 2027, but noted this remains below earlier forecasts due to energy price pressures expected to persist.
The IMF also reduced forecasts for Germany, France, the United States, and China. Germany’s forecast was revised down by 0.3 percentage points to 0.8%, while the other economies were lowered by 0.1 percentage point. Japan’s growth forecast was kept unchanged at 0.6%.
In contrast to many major economies, India and Russia received upward revisions of 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively.
For India, the IMF said the adjustment reflects relief from the United States reducing additional tariffs on Indian goods, helping offset the impact of the Iran conflict. For Russia, the IMF attributed the improved outlook to higher commodity prices, especially energy, which supports growth in 2026 relative to the January forecast.
Looking at the group of the world’s 10 largest economies by nominal GDP forecast for this year, the IMF included Italy and Brazil in addition to the eight countries shown in its chart.
The IMF lowered Italy’s 2026 growth forecast from 0.7% to 0.5%, citing the Iran conflict as a driver of higher energy prices and a factor clouding Europe’s economic outlook. By contrast, it raised Brazil’s forecast from 1.6% to 1.9%, citing strong agricultural output and a higher price level for food and fuels.
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