Iran war to drive global supply-chain restructuring

Japan’s Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) Chairman and CEO Jotaro Tamura said the Iran conflict is likely to trigger a major restructuring of global supply chains and could keep inflationary pressures elevated for an extended period. His comments come as shipping through the Hormuz Strait remains disrupted despite a ceasefire that has held for two weeks.

Cause: Hormuz disruption and supply-chain resilience

Tamura said the effective closure of the Hormuz Strait would be a “watershed event” that forces companies and governments to reassess supply-chain resilience for energy and other resources. He noted that business and government typically aim to minimize costs to access the cheapest supplies, but in the current environment they may need to source from farther regions or “accept higher costs in exchange for safety.”

He added that the conflict is pushing “uneconomic” considerations into the realm of rational decision-making, with costs extending beyond shipping and into broader markets.

Development: Ceasefire holds, but traffic remains far below normal

Tamura said the ceasefire is a positive signal and increases the likelihood that vessels in the Gulf can depart. However, he stressed it is too early to move ships when there is no full safety guarantee.

Despite Iran’s initial agreement to permit safe passage, shipping operations remain severely disrupted. According to MarineTraffic data, only about a dozen ships passed through the strait in the two days after the ceasefire, compared with about 140 ships per day prior to the conflict.

Iranian semi-official outlets also published maps alleging that the Revolutionary Guard may have laid mines in areas frequently used by ships.

Data and operational details

Tamura said MOL has already dispatched three ships from the Persian Gulf since the conflict began on February 28: one LNG carrier and two LNG carriers operated by MOL that passed through Hormuz in early April, before the U.S. and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement.

He declined to comment on the three ships that had passed through the strait, but said “some” MOL ships remain stuck in the Persian Gulf.

Fees, procedures, and UNCLOS stance

Tamura said Iran is demanding transit fees to be paid in cryptocurrency. He said the company would “respect the right of passage” under UNCLOS.

A representative of the Japan Shipowners’ Association said IRGC is signaling ships to follow a “proper procedure” if they want to move. The representative added that, because Japanese ships are coordinating with the Japanese government, they will not respond to those signals. They said there is not full consensus among companies yet, and each party is wary of acting alone.

Impact: Inflation risk and profit outlook

Tamura said the situation is “a factor that increases inflationary pressure in the coming period.”

MOL previously forecast pretax profit of 200 billion yen (about $1.25 billion) for the fiscal year ending March 2027, but said it would review the outlook if the Hormuz situation does not improve by the end of April.

“At present, I believe there is almost no chance the situation will be resolved before the end of April,” Tamura said.