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KB Vietnam Securities (KBSV) said in its latest report that, following new developments in the Middle East that affect the global macro backdrop as well as Vietnam, it has revised its 2026 outlook in a more cautious direction than the early-2026 strategy report released at the start of the year.
KBSV lowered its market-wide earnings growth (EPS) forecast for 2026 to 11% year-on-year, down from 15.7% in the previous report. The brokerage attributed the change to new factors identified in Q1, particularly geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that are pushing up inflation, the exchange rate, and interest rates.
It also cited existing headwinds, including liquidity shortages in the system and credit controls on real estate. Even so, KBSV said double-digit growth remains relatively positive in the context of the government’s economy-stimulus policies.
Since the start of 2026, KBSV noted unpredictable volatility in global financial markets, including the US Supreme Court striking down tariffs under IEEPA, former President Donald Trump revisiting trade-route issues, and an energy shock linked to the US–Israel–Iran conflict that disrupted global energy supply.
In its base case, KBSV expects geopolitical tensions to ease by late Q2 2026, which would lead to oil-price adjustments that mitigate negative impacts on growth and global financial markets in the second half of the year. Over the medium term, however, it expects oil prices to remain unlikely to return to pre-conflict lows due to supply constraints, continuing to pressure inflation and limit the Federal Reserve’s room to ease policy rates.
Domestically, KBSV said fiscal policy is expected to play a leading role to achieve roughly 10% GDP growth, while monetary policy faces greater pressure to stabilize the macroeconomy while supporting system liquidity.
On funding rates, KBSV suggested the level could rise by 0.5–1 percentage point from the end of Q1, remain high in Q2, and then ease noticeably from the start of Q3 as external pressures abate.
For the stock market, KBSV lowered its VN-Index fair-value range for 2026 to 1,950 points, compared with the 2,040 points forecast earlier in the year. The updated range still implies around a 15% increase from current levels.
KBSV said the adjustment reflects expectations of slower corporate earnings growth and higher rate pressures than initially forecast. It also noted that the March sell-off was partly driven by excessive concerns about interest rates and geopolitical conflict.
KBSV said the current P/E of about 12.4x is approaching the troughs seen in 2022 and 2025. While it acknowledged near-term risks, it said the growth outlook for the economy and corporate profits remains supportive and could create mid- to long-term investment opportunities.
In its base scenario, KBSV expects a meaningful rebound in the second half of 2026 as geopolitical tensions ease and rates gradually decline, lifting the market P/E toward the 13x range.
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