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Macroeconomic trends and the domestic stock market outlook are discussed by MBS Securities. The firm said there have been no major macro events announced, but it views the current period as transitional following the early-year Parliament sessions (the 16th National Assembly) and the arrival of new leadership. MBS said these factors typically support long-term investor sentiment, particularly for banking, construction, real estate and export-related sectors.
As of April 24, 2026, 431 listed banks and enterprises—equivalent to 28.9% of the market’s total capitalization—had published financial statements or preliminary estimates for Q1 2026. MBS noted that after-tax profit continued to rise strongly year over year, up 34.2% versus the same period.
In its market view, MBS expects that in a base-case scenario, after more than five weeks of recovery, the VN-Index could surpass the 1,900-point threshold (the previous peak earlier in 2026). The firm added that the market could also see a broad correction as capital concentrates around a limited number of individual stocks.
MBS said the support zone for a potential correction lies in the 1,780–1,800 point range. After the Q1 2026 earnings season, the market is expected to enter a period of low information in May. While the index may rise, MBS expects many stocks to post losses or underperform, with funds from sidelined investors creating a divergence between index performance and individual stock results.
MBS emphasized that this would not necessarily indicate the uptrend has ended, but rather a pause to accumulate momentum ahead of a longer-term move above 1,900 points.
Based on its assessment, MBS selected the following representative stocks for May: CTG, VPB, FPT, HPG, MSN, FOX, KBC.
MBS estimated upside of 56% for CTG, supported by sustained favorable Q1 2026 results. The firm also cited a possible one-off gain from the sale of Vietinbank Tower. It said valuation remains inexpensive versus peers despite asset quality and profitability outperforming, and that rising CAR could imply potential future equity sales.
MBS projected upside of 57% for VPB. It said Q1 2026 pre-tax profit grew about 58% year over year and reached 20% of the annual target. Credit growth was reported at 10%, nearly triple the system-wide growth rate. MBS expects full-year pre-tax profit to be supported by stronger credit growth offsetting NIM pressure, alongside continued expansion in services, non-performing debt recovery and cost reductions. The firm projected a 2026 P/B of 1.0, about 21% below the 3-year average, and said ROE and asset quality are expected to improve in 2026–2027.
MBS estimated upside of 51% for FPT. It said Q1 2026 results still reflected challenges in the overseas IT segment, including low revenue and narrowing margins. Positively, backlog growth remained solid at 22% year over year. For domestic IT, MBS said the AI Factory in Vietnam is operating effectively, with occupancy around 70–80% and break-even since December 2025. The firm cited valuation implying a 2026–27 forward P/E of 11.1x, below the 5-year average of 20.6x, and expected long-term net profit growth of about 17% in 2026–27. MBS added that valuation already prices in some corporate risks and highlighted FPT’s valuation as a key point amid volatile market conditions.
MBS projected about 2% upside for HPG. It said Q1 2026 net profit rose 170% year over year, driven by a 35% increase in steel and nearly 4 trillion VND from disposing of the Phu Noi industrial park. MBS attributed steel price recovery in Q1 2026 to healthy demand and easing pressure from Chinese steel prices. The firm projected a forward 2026 P/E of around 9.3x, below 12.5x seen in other steel cycles, and a 2026 P/B of about 1.5, roughly 20% below the cycle’s average.
MBS estimated upside of about 17% for KBC. It said the company has approvals to invest in several industrial park and urban development projects. MBS cited progress on the Trang Cat urban area, including completed investment licenses and land-use rights. It added that KBC is land-filling and building infrastructure, planning to wholesale about 20 hectares in 2026–2027, and that the company is positioned to benefit from increased FDI inflows into high-tech sectors as it expands cooperation with new FDI partners.
MBS projected roughly 32% upside for MSN. It said Q1 2026 total net revenue reached 24,020 billion VND, while net profit rose 27% to 1,246 billion VND (up 216%), exceeding forecasts by about 9%. For 2026, MBS expected steady growth in the MCH segment supported by expanding WCM store openings and a stabilized distribution system. It also said the WCM and MSR segments continue to grow, aided by geopolitical tensions that increase selling prices while volumes remain solid. With favorable earnings from TCB, MBS expected net profit growth of around 33% year over year.
MBS estimated about 19% upside for FOX. It said the shareholders’ meeting highlighted a strong growth commitment, with revenue and pretax profit rising 12.8% and 16.9% year over year, respectively. MBS pointed to the role of the Ministry of Public Security in creating new jobs across telecom, data centers and security cameras.
The article also discussed the possibility of a broader market pullback and the general sentiment around May trading, alongside additional market commentary.
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