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The crypto market in 2025 was a paradox—both the best and worst year—reflecting mixed investor sentiment. As the market matures, a more predictable “maturity curve” is emerging, suggesting a shift toward rationality. However, cognitive dissonance remains visible: prices have declined even as the market becomes more rational.
Mike Ippolito described 2025 as the “best worst year” in his view, pointing to a mix of disappointments and clearer market behavior. He said the market is starting to follow a predictable curve around maturity, even as investor psychology struggles with the gap between improving rationality and falling prices.
He also highlighted the emergence of a more regulated route for crypto, while noting that prices have still gone down. In his view, the contrast between a more rational market and declining valuations is a key driver of investor confusion.
A central theme discussed was the ongoing transition from speculative valuation to fundamental valuation methodologies. The shift is expected to continue into 2026, with many projects described as “mispriced,” which can further confuse investors.
At the same time, recent all-time highs for Ethereum and Solana were characterized as not necessarily signaling a meaningful bull market. The discussion also pointed to a lack of new entrants into crypto, with participants largely remaining in the ecosystem for multiple years, which can affect expectations and sentiment.
The market’s current phase was compared to the late-1990s/early-2000s web cycle. The discussion framed 2025 as analogous to the period around “late 2001 to early 2002” for web two, when optimism and infrastructure build-out were prominent.
In that context, consolidation was identified as a key trend. “Surviving” was described as a winning strategy over the next three years, and builders were advised to focus on either getting acquired or consolidating within their category.
Ethereum’s layer one protocol was expected to be well-positioned for growth by 2026. The discussion also cited progress in zkEVM technology, described as delivering faster than expected.
Messaging around building on layer one versus layer two was also noted as a source of uncertainty for developers, contributing to confusion about direction and priorities.
The current environment was framed as one where committed builders can pursue more sustainable value rather than short-term profits. The discussion suggested that historical patterns reward those who endure downturns, and that 2026 will determine whether many long-held ideas in crypto are validated or invalidated.
Looking ahead, the discussion said 2026 will bring greater convergence between equity markets and crypto. One example mentioned was the potential emergence of “equity perps” in 2026.
Investor relations was also expected to evolve. The discussion suggested that investor relations will become increasingly important, with a move toward standardized financial disclosures and community-focused strategies. It also noted that launching publicly traded instruments creates dual responsibilities for founders.
The discussion indicated that crypto companies may borrow investor-relations principles from equities, including using social media more directly. It also referenced how companies such as Coinbase and Robinhood are rethinking product announcements by communicating directly with their audiences.
Accounting standards were described as an area likely to generate significant noise, including discussions around GAAP. The view presented was that an accepted set of accounting standards for crypto is needed, while major GAAP changes were considered unlikely due to the overhead involved.
On dual token and dual equity structures, the discussion suggested that such arrangements are often not feasible—citing that in “90% of these cases it’s simply not feasible.” It also raised the possibility of a negative stigma around protocols with dual equity and token structures, while noting that investors may prefer structures where there is only one instrument. The discussion further suggested that investors may be less interested in tokens where equity components are inaccessible.
Revenue-related discussions were expected to shift toward durability and quality. The discussion emphasized that not all revenue is created equal and that investors may stop giving credit to highly pro-cyclical revenue.
Quantum computing was discussed as a future threat to Bitcoin, but not until around 2032. The discussion also noted that the topic has met resistance within parts of the Bitcoin community, while arguing that quantum is not only a crypto issue and will affect society more broadly.
Real-world assets were highlighted as a major growth area for 2026, including “RWA looping” on blockchains. The discussion also pointed to challenges in bringing real-world assets on-chain.
It further described 2024 as a “phenomenal year” for DeFi driven by real-world asset inflows. For vaults, the discussion projected growth from $5 billion to around $15 billion in assets by the end of next year, noting that vaults may appreciate but likely won’t go “parabolic.”
Finally, the discussion linked demand for yield from stablecoins moving on-chain to the growth of credit funds, suggesting that some venture capital firms struggling may launch credit funds in the coming year.
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