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Morgan Stanley has launched its Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, with Arkham identifying its on-chain wallets for real-time tracking. In the market for Bitcoin reaching an all-time high by December 31, 2026, odds currently stand at 16% “YES,” up from 12% a week earlier.
The Bitcoin all-time-high markets for June 30, 2026, September 30, 2026, and December 31 show increased optimism, with December’s odds rising the most. Traders appear to be pricing in a major catalyst later in the year rather than near-term.
Trading volume across these markets has been modest, with $856 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. Moving the price by 5 percentage points requires up to $3,641 in the December contract, suggesting relatively thin order books. The largest single move was a 4-point jump in the December 31 market, likely tied to Arkham’s tracking revelation.
Morgan Stanley is the first wirehouse to launch a dedicated Bitcoin ETF product. With Arkham’s on-chain wallet identification, investors and observers can monitor the fund’s holdings in real time.
If the ETF attracts meaningful inflows, it could add direct buy pressure on Bitcoin. In the December contract, a “YES” share priced at 16¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits a new high by year-end, implying a 6.25x return. The payoff depends on sustained ETF inflows and regulatory conditions remaining favorable through 2026.
Morgan Stanley’s MSBT inflow reports will be the most direct signal of institutional demand. Federal Reserve rate decisions will also be important, as lower rates tend to support capital allocation to risk assets such as Bitcoin. Given the thin order books, both factors could move these contracts materially.
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