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Bitcoin Magazine Pro lead analyst Matt Crosby said traders relying on Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle may be using a framework that no longer matches current market conditions. In his latest analysis, Crosby argued that structural changes in supply, institutional demand and macro liquidity are now more important than the older halving-driven playbook.
Crosby’s central claim is that Bitcoin may already be trading in a different regime. He pointed to the fact that more than 20 million BTC are now in circulation, saying that over 95% of the total eventual supply has already been issued. With less remaining supply to “shock” the market, he argued the relative impact of each new halving may be reduced.
Historically, halvings have cut Bitcoin’s inflation rate in half and helped shape a recurring pattern of post-halving rallies, followed by drawdowns and recovery into the next cycle. Crosby said that pattern may be losing influence.
“Many people are looking towards the previous cycles as a potential for what Bitcoin will do this time,” he said. “We can’t bottom out anytime soon. We need to wait until at least a year has passed from that peak, because that’s what we’ve always done.”
He rejected that logic, adding that he has “concrete evidence” for why the old cycle should not be treated as the base case.
Much of Crosby’s evidence, he said, comes from demand. He highlighted accumulation from large treasury buyers and spot Bitcoin ETFs. He cited Strategy’s acquisition of more than 1,000 BTC per day, which he said is roughly two to three times Bitcoin’s daily inflation rate.
Crosby also referenced a recent day in which spot ETFs bought nearly $750 million worth of Bitcoin, arguing that persistent demand differs from market structure seen in earlier cycles.
Instead of anchoring on calendar-based cycle models or seasonality, Crosby said investors should focus on liquidity and broader macro conditions. He cited a 96.26% long-term correlation between the S&P 500 and global M2 liquidity, and a 93% correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P over 15 years on a monthly basis. He also said Bitcoin shows an 85% correlation to global liquidity, reinforcing the view that liquidity expansion and contraction drive major moves.
Crosby challenged the usefulness of election-cycle seasonality. While Bitcoin’s midterm years have sometimes produced strong average returns, he noted that median returns are negative and that the sample size is thin. He said gold and equities do not show the same kind of clear political-cycle pattern, making seasonality a weak foundation for market calls.
Crosby also argued that Bitcoin looks different when measured against gold rather than the US dollar. On that basis, he said Bitcoin may have topped in late 2024 and already spent more than a year in a relative bear phase, potentially bottoming around February 2026. He presented this as another sign the classic four-year cycle may be breaking down.
Crosby said more actionable signals are coming from on-chain and macro indicators. He pointed to Coin Days Destroyed and Value Days Destroyed, which he said have historically flagged major tops and accumulation zones, and said Bitcoin has recently re-entered an area that previously aligned with undervaluation.
On the macro side, he noted that US consumer sentiment in April 2026 fell to 47.6%, which he described as the lowest reading on record. He added that manufacturing expectations and liquidity conditions have started to improve.
“At some point, it’s inevitable this four-year cycle is going to break,” Crosby said. “We are seeing fresh liquidity entering the system. We are seeing the S&P 500 rally. We are seeing more positivity in manufacturing outlooks, and we are seeing incredible negativity, not just in Bitcoin, but in sentiment across equity markets as well.”
His conclusion was not that risk has disappeared, but that the market may no longer reward waiting for an “arbitrary date on a calendar.” If Crosby is right, the next major Bitcoin move would be shaped less by inherited cycle lore and more by liquidity, positioning and sustained institutional demand.
At press time, BTC traded at $78,144.
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