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Oil majors are facing potential windfall tax risk as profits rise on elevated energy prices, with analysts warning that markets may not quickly return to normal even if geopolitical tensions ease.
Shell reported net profit near $5.7 billion, up 19% from Q1 2025, supported by higher prices and a higher refining margin, alongside increased contributions from trading activities.
BP posted net profit of $3.84 billion, while TotalEnergies saw profits jump 51% to $5.8 billion.
Saudi Aramco also announced a 25.5% year-on-year rise in net profit for Q1 2026.
The US-Israel conflict with Iran has led Tehran to block the Hormuz Strait, a key energy chokepoint. The disruption has tightened supply and pushed prices higher.
Brent crude averaged around $100 per barrel in March, with a peak near $120, after trading around $70 before the late-February outbreak.
Analysts expect continued high profits into Q2. Stephen Innes, an analyst at SPI Asset Management, said: “Even if tensions ease, the market will not return to normal overnight.”
Adi Imsirovic, a senior lecturer in energy systems at the University of Oxford, added that “it is not clear this conflict will be resolved easily,” suggesting prices may remain elevated for longer.
In recent years, BP and Shell have trimmed some climate-target ambitions to prioritize continued oil and gas production. TotalEnergies has said it cannot continue to commit to its 2050 net-zero goal, arguing the world is not yet ready to abandon oil.
While the conflict has boosted oil and gas economics, it has also brought renewables back into the spotlight for energy security. Imsirovic emphasized that this is not being ignored by capitals around the world.
Premium gym chains are entering a “golden era” that is ending or already in decline, as rising operating costs collide with shifting consumer preferences toward more flexible, community-based ways to exercise. Long-term memberships are shrinking, margins are pressured by higher rents and facility expenses, and competition from smaller, more personalized…
