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PEPE is attempting to stabilize within the meme coin market after months of weaker momentum, with a new technical setup suggesting the next directional move could hinge on a narrow support zone. Crypto analyst Lars Koostra said the token is reacting from a demand area, but a distribution-focused model still raises the risk of a deeper bearish rotation.
The analysis is based on a TCT model that Koostra says has been confirmed. The key question is whether PEPE can defend the current demand point of interest or whether it is preparing for a move back toward range lows.
Koostra’s chart indicates PEPE is trading around 0.00000400, bouncing from what he describes as the only demand POI (point of interest) currently preventing a full bearish rotation. He characterizes this as the final support area that keeps the downside move projected by the TCT model from completing.
The TCT model also points to signs of distribution near the upper part of the range. Koostra notes that price action moved into a higher supply area in late April but failed to break cleanly above it, which he reads as confirmation that demand sits below the current price level.
As a result, the recent bounce does not automatically negate the bearish structure. Instead, it may only delay it until PEPE either breaks higher with strength or loses the support holding the market together.
Koostra’s update places PEPE up 4.8% over the past 24 hours and up 5.5% over the past seven days.
Despite the short-term gains, the broader picture remains mixed. At the time of writing, PEPE is trading at $0.000004268. The token is still down 47% on a one-year basis, while it has gained more than 26% over the past month.
Koostra’s chart includes a red projection suggesting PEPE could push higher into an extreme supply area before potentially reversing lower. The upper resistance band highlighted on the chart is located in the $0.000004130 to $0.000004200 region.
This extreme supply area is described as the next major test. A weak reaction there would support the bearish TCT model and keep a range-low target around $0.0000037 in play.
Conversely, a stronger move above the zone would weaken the distribution case and could prompt reassessment of whether PEPE is building a larger recovery. Koostra also indicated that if PEPE retraces into extreme supply, he would look to refine an entry and add risk only after high-quality confirmations.
Koostra’s distribution model suggests PEPE may still need to complete a deeper liquidity move before any stronger recovery can develop. In the meantime, the current bounce appears to be occurring while the token remains dependent on the support zone around 0.00000400.
