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Quantum computing research firm Project Eleven says the encryption underpinning Bitcoin could be breached by 2030, putting about 6.9 million BTC at direct risk. At current prices, the firm estimates this equates to roughly $560 billion in bitcoin held in addresses with exposed public keys—coins that could become vulnerable once sufficiently powerful quantum computers are available.
Project Eleven’s estimate centers on older Bitcoin address formats that expose public keys directly on the blockchain. Newer address types—such as those beginning with “bc1”—hash the public key before it is recorded on-chain, adding an additional layer of protection.
The report argues that millions of coins remain in legacy addresses where the public key is visible to anyone who looks. It also notes that some holdings believed to be associated with Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, are thought to be in legacy addresses.
The firm estimates a greater than 50% likelihood that quantum computers will be capable of breaking these protections by 2033. It frames 2030 as a more aggressive but still plausible timeline, depending on the pace of quantum hardware breakthroughs.
Project Eleven cautions that quantum progress may not advance steadily. Instead, it suggests breakthroughs could occur in “explosive bursts.” The report points to research that has validated cracking a 15-bit elliptic curve key using quantum methods, emphasizing that Bitcoin’s cryptography relies on 256-bit keys—making the gap between current demonstrations and Bitcoin’s security requirements very large.
Even so, the firm’s argument is that the trajectory is measurable and that the end point may be closer than the raw bit-length difference implies.
Bitcoin’s decentralized governance means cryptographic migration cannot be treated like a simple switch. Any protocol-level change requires broad consensus among miners, node operators, developers, and users, a process that historically takes years. The report cites the SegWit upgrade as an example, noting it took roughly four years from initial proposal to activation.
Project Eleven’s core point is that if the quantum threat materializes by 2030, beginning migration efforts in 2029 would be too late.
Several blockchain projects are developing post-quantum cryptographic solutions, with some targeting implementation deadlines by 2029. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been working to standardize post-quantum cryptographic algorithms, and some blockchain protocols have begun integrating lattice-based or hash-based signature schemes intended to resist quantum attacks.
Bitcoin, however, has no formal roadmap for quantum migration. While the Bitcoin Core development community has discussed the issue intermittently, no Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) focused on quantum resistance has gained significant traction. The report also notes that Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin has referenced quantum resistance as a long-term priority, though concrete implementation timelines remain unclear.
For holders of bitcoin in older P2PKH addresses where the public key has been revealed through prior transactions, Project Eleven recommends moving funds to newer address formats. While this does not permanently eliminate the quantum risk, it adds a layer of defense by keeping the public key hidden behind a hash until the moment of spending.
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