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Q1 may enter Bitcoin’s bear-market history as the first quarter to post losses. Bitcoin has faced a sharp year-to-date decline, with CoinTelegraph reporting it is at risk of the worst first quarter in eight years.
From the start of the year, Bitcoin has fallen about 22.3%. It began 2026 around $87,700 and has since shed nearly $20,000, sliding to around $68,000.
CoinGlass statistics indicate that if the current trend does not reverse soon, this would be the most negative Q1 since the 2018 bear market, when Bitcoin fell about 50% over three months.
Over the past 13 years, Bitcoin has finished Q1 in the red seven times. The most recent losing first quarters were:
Analyst Daan Trades Crypto said Q1 is typically a period of high market volatility and that historical data does not necessarily show Q1 moves as a reliable indicator of the full-year trend. He added that early-year corrections may not extend into subsequent quarters.
Bitcoin has recorded two consecutive years with a Q1 loss only twice—during the bear markets of 2018 and 2022.
Compared with Bitcoin, Ether—ranked second by market capitalization—has had only three Q1 declines in the last nine years. However, this year’s Q1 is turning into the third negative quarter in Ether’s history, with a roughly 34.3% drop so far.
On a shorter time frame, Bitcoin faces the risk of two consecutive red months. January fell 10.2%, and through February the loss stands at 13.4% year-to-date. To avoid ending February in the red, Bitcoin would need to rebound to around $80,000.
CoinGecko data show Bitcoin has entered a fifth consecutive week of declines. In the last 24 hours, the price fell another 2.3%, to around $67,000.
In an interview with CoinTelegraph, Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research, said Bitcoin’s current weakness—against a backdrop of persistent global economic uncertainty—looks like a typical correction rather than a sign of a structural breakdown in the long-term trend. He noted that if unfavorable macro factors persist, near-term pressures could mount.
Ruck added that historical models suggest Bitcoin tends to recover in subsequent months, particularly as institutional acceptance grows and the halving cycle continues to support the asset’s long-term outlook.
Bitcoin may show resilience driven by macro factors, but the path ahead remains uncertain as institutional adoption and broader macro dynamics continue to evolve.
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