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A regime shift is taking shape in Bitcoin markets, with capital flowing into Bitcoin rather than into altcoins, analysts say. Swissblock said the “market phase” has been firmly anchored in Bitcoin as the flagship asset attempts to push higher while its market dominance breaks out of a months-long consolidation range. Historically, similar structures have marked the early stages of broader market expansion, but analysts cautioned that Bitcoin must maintain leadership for the pattern to hold.
Swissblock’s assessment links the current rotation to a strengthening of Bitcoin’s role in the market. The key risk, analysts said, is that any breakdown in this structure could quickly reignite weakness across the broader crypto sector.
Supporting indicators point to extreme capitulation in sentiment and positioning. CryptoMichNL reported that eleven on-chain and derivatives metrics are flashing signals not seen since the fourth quarter of 2022, describing the setup as the last major buying opportunity in five years.
Market enthusiasm also appears subdued. Perpetual funding rates are deeply negative, with shorts paying longs at an annualized rate of nearly 5%. At the same time, the three-month futures basis has compressed to 2–3%, the lowest level since late 2022.
These conditions are consistent with prior crash phases, including the March 2020 sell-off and the November 2022 FTX collapse. With leveraged longs limited and selling pressure exhausted, the market has shifted toward spot-driven dynamics.
Recent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows total roughly $1.5 billion since mid-April, underscoring underlying demand even as broader risk sentiment remains uneven.
CryptoQuant data places the current drawdown from Bitcoin’s all-time high at approximately 39%, about 205 days after the peak. Analysts noted this is shallower than the 76–86% declines seen in previous cycle bottoms, but still well short of full capitulation levels typical of past bear markets.
On the technical side, AliCharts highlighted the short-term holder-realized price near $79,300 as a critical level. Bitcoin is testing this barrier, which represents the average cost basis of coins acquired in the past 155 days. A sustained move above the $80,000 zone could change incentives for holders, encouraging accumulation rather than selling at breakeven and potentially ending the corrective phase.
Failure to hold the level could trigger a flush of short-term positions and push price toward macro support near $65,000.
Bitcoin fell 2.08% to $76,992 over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. Over $122 million in liquidations occurred, predominantly long positions.
Based on the technical read, failing to reclaim $76,240 could open the downside toward $74,230 and potentially $72,600. Analysts also pointed to the need for easing geopolitical rhetoric or a shift in Fed expectations to support a reversal.
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