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Approximately USD 2 billion in remittances were sent to Ho Chi Minh City in the first three months of the year, down nearly 17% from the same period a year earlier. According to the State Bank branch Region No. 2 (Ho Chi Minh City and Dong Nai), remittance flows have trended downward since Q4 2025 into early 2026. In the last quarter of 2025, remittance inflows reached nearly USD 2.4 billion, down 13% from the previous quarter. As we moved into Q1 2026, the figure fell to just over USD 2 billion. Ms. Tran Thi Ngoc Lien, Deputy Director of the State Bank’s Regional Branch No. 2, says this reflects impacts from the global and domestic economy and geopolitical factors. She notes that the world economy is recovering slowly while inflation remains high, increasing living costs and directly affecting the income of Vietnamese workers abroad. Additionally, the prolonged tight monetary policy in major economies continues to negatively affect production and business activity, thereby indirectly affecting income and remittance inflows to Vietnam. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contribute to remittance dynamics by increasing energy-price volatility and global inflationary pressures. This affects workers’ real incomes. Moreover, regional economic disruptions in some countries in this area have reduced income and the ability of Vietnamese workers to send money home. According to the State Bank, remittances from this region do not have a large share, so the impact is mainly indirect. Giao dịch USD tại một ngân hàng tư nhân. Ảnh: Giang Huy Ms. Lien also notes that macroeconomic conditions remain stable, but some investment channels have not yet attracted remittance funds. The gap between VND and USD interest rates is not large, which also affects the decision to transfer money home. Additionally, seasonal factors after the year-end peak in remittance activity for holiday spending cause remittance inflows in the early-year quarter to typically decline. Looking ahead, a representative from the State Bank says remittance inflows may not rise significantly in the near term, as they depend on developments in the domestic and international economy. Usually after a low point at the start of the year, remittance inflows tend to recover slightly in subsequent quarters as the economy and employment of overseas workers stabilize again. However, ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East and other regions remain complex and are likely to continue affecting energy prices, inflation, and market sentiment. This influences the income and saving capacity of the diaspora. Also according to the State Bank, in Dong Nai, as of March 31, remittances primarily channeled through credit institutions also declined more than 16% quarter-on-quarter, to USD 36.4 million.
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