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Remittances channeled through credit institutions and economic organizations in Ho Chi Minh City fell sharply in the first quarter of 2026, reaching over 2.004 billion USD, according to Uyên Phương (reported on 18 April 2026). This was down 15.6% from the fourth quarter of 2025 and down 16.9% from the same period in 2025.
SBV Region 2 data shows a downward trend in remittance flows from the fourth quarter of 2025 into the start of this year. In the last quarter of 2025, remittances through credit institutions and economic organizations totaled nearly 2.38 billion USD, down 13.3% quarter-on-quarter.
In Q1 2026, remittances dropped to just over 2 billion USD, representing a 15.6% decline compared with the preceding quarter.
Ms. Liên said the quarterly fall reflects the combined impact of multiple global and domestic factors, including geopolitical developments.
SBV representatives noted that the share of remittances from the Middle East is not large, so the impact is mainly indirect and supplementary, rather than the primary cause.
Domestically, macroeconomic indicators remain stable, but some investment channels have not yet attracted remittance capital. Ms. Liên also pointed to the relatively small difference between VND and USD interest rates, which can influence decisions to remit funds home.
Seasonal effects after the year-end peak remittance period for holiday spending also tend to reduce remittances in the first quarter, making the year-on-year decline more pronounced.
Ms. Liên expects that in the near term remittance flows may not rise sharply, as they depend on both global and domestic economic developments. Typically, after the low point in early year, remittances recover modestly in subsequent quarters as overseas workers’ employment and economic activity stabilize after holidays and Tet.
However, ongoing complexity from the Middle East conflict and other regions may continue to affect energy prices, inflation, and market sentiment—factors that influence global economic conditions, incomes, and the diaspora’s ability to accumulate wealth, potentially keeping remittance flows under pressure.
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