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Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse raised his odds that the Clarity Act will pass to 90% by the end of April after a White House meeting Thursday involving crypto and banking leaders.
Garlinghouse said the probability increased following Thursday morning discussions at the White House. The meeting included Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty, Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal, a16z’s Miles Jennings, and banking representatives, focused on the stablecoin yield dispute.
“I think it’s now 90% it will pass by the end of April,” Garlinghouse said. He added that he previously expected the end of April but that some observers viewed that timing as optimistic. Garlinghouse also pointed to the presence of “a lot of leaders on both sides, the crypto and banking in the White House.”
The move from 80% to 90% signals Garlinghouse sees meaningful progress from the talks.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC there is now “a path forward where we can get a win-win-win outcome here. A win for the crypto industry, a win for the banks and a win for the American consumer.”
The dispute centers on whether banks should be allowed to broadly restrict stablecoin yields. Banks have argued for a broad ban on stablecoin yields, saying crypto firms should not distribute interest to users. Crypto firms counter that such a ban would stifle innovation and give traditional banks an unfair advantage.
The Digital Chamber proposed a compromise approach: exempt stablecoin yields when users participate in activities such as liquidity provision and staking, rather than applying a blanket ban. It remains unclear whether banking representatives will accept the proposal.
The White House set an end-of-February deadline for reaching a compromise. As that deadline approached, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged Congress last week to pass the bill this spring.
Senator Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), a member of the Senate Banking Committee, also said at Tuesday’s World Liberty Forum that the bill could pass by April.
On Kalshi, odds that the Clarity Act becomes law before June briefly spiked to 85% Thursday morning from 39% Wednesday evening after Armstrong and Moreno’s statements. The odds then fell back to 46% following the surge.
Odds the bill passes before 2027 hovered around 71% Thursday, down from an overnight high of 87%. The swings suggest traders remain uncertain despite optimistic comments from industry leaders.
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