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Vietnam is aging rapidly, but if tapped properly, demand from older people could open up a large market and provide additional growth momentum in the coming years, according to an economist commenting on the government’s plan to develop a “silver economy” in response to demographic change.
Associate Professor and Dr. Bui Quang Binh of the University of Economics (Da Nang University) said Vietnam is entering a very rapid demographic transition. In 2024, the country had about 14.2 million people aged 60 and over, a figure expected to rise to nearly 18 million by 2030.
He noted that in just over a decade, Vietnam could become an aging society, with seniors accounting for more than 20% of the population. He added that this process is occurring much faster than in developed countries that previously experienced similar transitions.
The shift is expected to affect multiple areas. Mr. Binh said the labor force will grow more slowly, or even shrink, eroding the advantage of cheap labor. At the same time, spending on health care, pensions and social security is expected to rise sharply, placing pressure on the budget.
From a living standards perspective, he said demand will also change: people are likely to spend more on health care, long-term care, insurance, and leisure, rather than traditional consumer needs.
Without suitable policy responses, Mr. Binh warned that negative consequences could emerge across the economy and society. He said economic growth could slow due to labor shortages, fiscal burdens could increase, and the caregiving burden for the elderly could fall heavily on families—especially women.
He also pointed to changing household structures, noting that multigenerational households may become less common due to urbanization and migration, which could make elder care more difficult.
Mr. Binh said an aging population creates a new services market, spanning health care and leisure for older people. He described the silver economy as an opportunity if approached correctly.
He said government direction to develop the silver economy alongside the digital economy and the green economy is a strategic move. Rather than relying primarily on the size of the labor force, the economy can shift toward multiple growth drivers.
In particular, the silver economy would leverage growing demand from older people to develop industries such as health care, long-term care, retirement financing, and leisure travel.
He also said the digital economy can help raise productivity and offset labor shortfalls through technology and automation, while the green economy can support a sustainable living environment—especially important for vulnerable groups such as the elderly.
Looking at the broader policy shift, Mr. Binh said the approach signals a move away from placing the entire caregiving burden on families. He said caregiving responsibilities would be shared among the state, businesses and the community, without diminishing the family’s role, and with the aim of making caregiving more efficient and sustainable.
He added that developing the silver economy can also be viewed as extending the traditional value of filial piety into policy and social services, rather than limiting it to the family sphere.
Mr. Binh said aging is a major test for Vietnam. If the country does not adapt, it could become a drag on growth. If leveraged well, he said it could become a new growth engine in the coming period.
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