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SoFi has begun offering XRP trading through FDIC-insured accounts, but Polymarket’s contract for XRP reaching $2.60 by the end of April 2026 remains at 0.5% YES, unchanged over the past week.
SoFi is among the first U.S. banks to offer XRP trading alongside $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL. Despite the integration, odds across related markets—including contracts for XRP reaching $2.00 and XRP reaching $1.60—remain at 0% YES. Traders appear not to be pricing in near-term upside from the new availability.
Liquidity in the relevant Polymarket market is extremely thin. The market’s 24-hour face value is $3,069, while actual USDC traded is just $13. The contract pricing is sensitive to order flow: it takes $306 to move the price by 5 percentage points, meaning a small number of larger trades could shift quoted pricing. The largest price move in the past 24 hours was described as negligible.
At 0.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if XRP reaches $2.60 in April, implying a 200x return. Reaching that level would likely require a major regulatory breakthrough or institutional endorsement, rather than simply new access through a single banking platform.
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee and SEC regulatory signals are identified as the most likely catalysts that could change sentiment on these contracts. Any concrete positive action from either body could move the markets off their current floor.
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