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The crypto market is unfolding in line with historical patterns, according to Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures, who said at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 that recent calls for a quick bottom have been overly optimistic.
Terpin said he was skeptical of predictions that bitcoin’s bottom would be at $80,000 and that the downturn would last only about six weeks. “When people thought the bottom was going to be at $80,000 and that it would only be a six-week bear market, that seems ridiculous to me,” he said.
He also criticized forecasts that bitcoin would bottom at $60,000 and then immediately resume its climb, calling that timing “a little too soon.”
While Terpin did not forecast another year-long drawdown, he said the market likely faces “one more point of pain” in what he described as a fragile environment. He suggested bitcoin could revisit the $50,000s or even the $40,000s before a more durable bottom forms.
Terpin pointed to bitcoin’s halving mechanism as central to its design. The halving cuts the reward miners receive for validating transactions roughly every four years, reducing the rate at which new coins are created.
He argued that this supply shock reinforces bitcoin’s scarcity narrative and has historically preceded major bull markets, as reduced new supply meets steady or rising demand. The halving also slows bitcoin’s inflation rate over time, ultimately capping total supply at 21 million coins.
Terpin said the market is “exactly where we should be,” citing the well-established four-year cycle anchored around bitcoin’s halving events. He said one of the most consistent features of prior cycles has been the timing of the bubble peak and the subsequent unwind.
“The bull market popped in the fourth quarter after the halving,” he said, adding that the speculative blow-off phase typically lasts between nine and 11 months. “This time it was 11 months.”
Terpin drew a close parallel to the previous cycle, saying: “The highs, the bubble popping, were on Nov. 10, 2021. The lows were right after FTX declared bankruptcy on Nov. 10, 2022. Exactly a year to the day.”
He said the broader four-year rhythm has been notably consistent, with one full cycle off by just three days from a clean four-year interval. He also said the first halving cycle was only a few weeks off in terms of its peak-to-trough structure.
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