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On Wednesday, April 22, after the market closes, Tesla will report first-quarter 2026 earnings, followed by a live conference call in which founder and CEO Elon Musk and other senior management will provide an update on the business and answer analysts’ questions.
While the call is expected to cover Tesla’s core electric vehicle (EV) business, investors will also be looking for details on future initiatives that are central to how the market values the company.
Before earnings, Tesla typically releases deliveries and total production, which help investors gauge how many vehicles the company produced and how many it delivered.
In the first quarter of 2026, Tesla produced 408,386 vehicles and delivered 358,023. The article notes that this was the lowest number of deliveries in a year and that deliveries fell short of Wall Street estimates.
The gap between production and deliveries suggests Tesla may have higher-than-expected inventory, which could weigh on free cash flow, particularly given Tesla’s previous guidance of significant capital expenditures (capex) this year. Investors are likely to focus on this relationship, along with any updates on new EV models.
The article says the biggest focus is likely to be Tesla’s emerging robotaxi fleet and progress on humanoid robotics, which it describes as key drivers behind Tesla’s elevated valuation.
Tesla’s new robotaxi fleet is currently operating in Austin, Texas, and San Francisco. However, the article notes that it is difficult to determine how many robotaxis are fully autonomous versus remotely controlled.
According to the article, Musk has rarely met forecasted timelines for full self-driving and robotaxis in recent years, and the market may not be expecting him to be fully on schedule this year. The article also points to Musk’s involvement in bringing SpaceX public, which it says could limit his bandwidth.
Investors are expected to scrutinize Musk’s comments closely. The article suggests the market could be disappointed if there is a delay in the rollout of robotaxis to seven new cities Musk previously discussed, since robotaxis are expected to support a significant new revenue stream.
The article states that Tesla’s valuation has declined from nearly 300 times forward earnings at the end of last year to roughly 191 times as of the time of writing. It adds that this remains higher than peers in the “Magnificent Seven.”
While Optimus robots are mentioned as a focus, the article says they are not expected to be as central as robotaxis in the market’s interpretation of the earnings call.
The article concludes by advising caution on Tesla stock, arguing that the valuation depends on the success of robotaxis and humanoid robots, and therefore the risk-reward setup is unfavorable.
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