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As Bitcoin (BTC) defends a pivotal support level, Tom Lee has argued that the crypto winter is ending and has laid out bullish year-end outlooks for both Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH). Speaking during a quick-fire round of questions at Consensus 2026, Lee said Bitcoin could rise well beyond prior all-time highs by year’s end, forecasting a late-2026 trading range of $150,000 to $200,000. He also predicted that Ethereum could rally into year-end, potentially reaching $9,000 to $12,000.
Lee’s bullish stance is tied to his view that the crypto winter has ended and that a recovery rally could unfold over the coming months. He said, “Crypto Spring, in our view, has commenced,” adding that—similar to past cycles—investor sentiment and conviction remain muted and bearish even as crypto prices strengthen.
He further linked the outlook to the potential passage, or even failure, of the crypto market structure bill, describing it as confirmation that “crypto spring” has arrived.
Lee’s comments come as Bitcoin holds a crucial support zone. BTC had been trading between $74,000 and $79,000 since mid-April before breaking out of that range earlier this week. The cryptocurrency then moved above the $80,000 resistance on Monday for the first time since January.
BTC rallied during the first half of the week toward the $82,500 resistance before rejecting on Thursday. It is now trading in the $79,000 to $80,000 area, a zone some analysts say could determine whether the rally continues.
Reekt Capital said Bitcoin has held the 21-week EMA, around $78,000. However, he warned that the move through the resistance area has not been sustainable so far, raising the possibility of another retest of the 21-week EMA.
According to the same analysis, Bitcoin needs to successfully retest the 21-week EMA again to avoid a broader rejection from the resistance band between the 21-week EMA and the 50-week EMA, which could push prices down toward the mid-$70,000s.
Ali Martinez added that Bitcoin is trading near a key resistance level tied to the average cost basis of “new whales”—entities that bought over the last 155 days. He said this average cost basis currently sits at $80,300.
Martinez explained that when BTC trades below this average cost basis, those whales are effectively holding at a loss. In that scenario, new whales may be incentivized to sell to break even, particularly if Bitcoin fails to hold the $80,300 area as support.
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