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Toncoin’s [TON] market activity has slowed sharply in recent sessions, with both price and trading volume extending their downward trajectory. The weakness comes at a sensitive moment for the asset, which is approaching a significant token unlock that could further strain already fragile supply-demand conditions.
The price drop follows a recent network upgrade that improved TON performance, including a tenfold increase in throughput and a sixfold increase in block production speed. While the update strengthened the chain’s technical foundation, it has not yet translated into sustained market confidence or a price recovery.
The token unlock is scheduled for 23 April and is estimated at about $49.37 million, representing roughly 36.58 million TON, or 1.47% of the circulating supply, according to DeFiLlama.
The Ton Believer Fund will receive the tokens as it distributes rewards to long-term participants and early supporters.
In principle, such unlocks can reinforce ecosystem alignment by rewarding committed stakeholders. However, the timing of this release coincides with weakening market conditions, raising concerns about its short-term impact on price stability.
Market data indicates sentiment remains fragile. Over the past 24 hours, trading volume declined by 18% to roughly $108 million at press time, reflecting reduced participation across both buyers and sellers.
This drop in liquidity suggests limited absorption capacity. With new supply entering circulation, the imbalance could favor sellers, adding further pressure to a market that is already down about 3% in recent trading sessions.
Technical indicators point to growing bearish control.
At the time of writing, momentum signals showed a death cross formation, where the MACD line crossed below the signal line. This structure is often associated with sustained downside momentum, and the pattern has historically preceded extended corrective phases in price.
Supporting the bearish view, the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) indicator issued a sell signal, with dots forming above price action—typically reflecting ongoing downward trend conditions.
From a technical standpoint, TON appears vulnerable as it reverses from a diagonal resistance trendline. The current price action resembles a previous fractal around 14 February, when interaction with resistance led to heavy distribution and heightened volatility, followed by a sharp decline.
Recent data shows the market has already distributed more than 93.4 million TON during the current move, reinforcing sustained sell-side pressure.
In the near term, price may test a key demand zone defined by horizontal support levels, where buyers could step in and trigger consolidation. However, if bearish conditions persist, a breakdown below this zone remains a risk, with TON potentially returning to its February 2026 lows.
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