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Giấy phép số 4978/GP-TTĐT do Sở Thông tin và Truyền thông Hà Nội cấp ngày 14 tháng 10 năm 2019 / Giấy phép SĐ, BS GP ICP số 2107/GP-TTĐT do Sở TTTT Hà Nội cấp ngày 13/7/2022.
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At the Bloomberg Businessweek Vietnam event “The Year Ahead 2026” held on April 10, 2026, Suan Teck Kin, Global Market and Economic Research Director at UOB (Singapore), outlined how global trade is being reshaped, the tariff risks facing Vietnam, and the strategic drivers likely to determine Vietnam’s position in regional and global value chains.
Suan said world merchandise trade remained resilient in 2025 despite tariff pressures. He pointed to firms accelerating deliveries and building inventories to reduce disruption risk, alongside strong demand for AI-related products such as semiconductors, servers, and data-center infrastructure. He also cited a relatively positive macro environment in major economies, including the US, Europe, and China.
He noted that global export volumes rose by around 2.9% in 2024, compared with a long-run average of about 1.5% during 2020-2022, a period affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic recovery.
Looking to 2026, Suan referenced a World Trade Organization projection for global trade growth of about 1.9%. He said this would be broadly in line with the long-run average but below 2025.
He cautioned that prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, together with high energy prices, could reduce global trade growth by up to 0.5 percentage points. The mechanism, he said, would be higher transport costs, disruptions to air and sea routes, and weaker tourism and trade demand. At the same time, he said sustained momentum in AI-related demand is expected to provide support.
A structurally important trend highlighted in the speech was a shift in the US import mix since 2018, reflecting a more diversified global supply chain. Based on US Census Bureau data (as of early 2026), Mexico has become the largest supplier of US imports, accounting for about 16.9% of total imports. ASEAN follows at 15.7%, the EU at 14.7%, and Canada at 11.2%.
In contrast, Suan said China’s share in US imports has fallen to around 7.8%, from above 20% before 2018. He attributed the change to the combined effects of tariffs and geopolitical factors.

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