U.S. birth rate falls to historic low in 2025 as CDC data show continued decline

Preliminary data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Thursday showed the U.S. birth rate fell to a record low last year, extending a decline that has lasted nearly two decades. The drop reflects a broader global pattern in which more women delay or forgo childbearing amid changing priorities.

In 2025, the number of births in the United States declined by about 1% from the previous year to roughly 3.6 million, marking the sixth consecutive year that births have hovered near that level. The birth rate—births per 1,000 women aged 15–44—fell by 1% to 53.1.

Age patterns and record lows

After decades of decline, the U.S. birth rate has reached an all-time low. While fertility among women aged 30 and older has risen somewhat over the past decade, it has not fully offset declines among women under 30.

In 2025, births among women aged 25–29 fell by about 4.4%, while births among women aged 30–34 rose by about 2.7% compared with 2024. Teenage birth rates also dropped sharply: births among 18–19-year-olds fell 7% and those among 15–17-year-olds fell 11%, with both groups reaching record lows.

The CDC data also indicate that 2025 was the first year when birth rates for women nearing 40 exceeded those for women in their early 20s.

The preliminary dataset is based on 99.95% of birth records received and processed by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), CDC’s statistical agency, as of February 3, 2026.

Why births are staying low

Wendy Manning, a demographer at Bowling Green State University, said the persistent low birth counts reflect uncertainty about the future, including financial concerns, relationship stability, and the political environment. She noted that studies still show many women want to have children.

“People are postponing parenthood longer and perhaps wanting to ensure life is stable enough before making that decision,” Manning said.

Manning suggested teen birth rates fell in part due to public health campaigns and the growing use of long-acting contraception.

Since 2007, birth rates among 15–19-year-olds have fallen by about 72%. Karen Benjamin Guzzo of the University of North Carolina said the U.S. has spent decades and many resources trying to deter teen childbearing, citing concerns that it can disrupt the lives of both mother and child. She also noted that teen birth rates in the U.S. were significantly higher in the 1980s and 1990s than in many developed economies.

Fertility rate declines

Another indicator, the total fertility rate (TFR), also declined to a historic low in the United States. The TFR represents the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime if age-specific fertility rates remained constant. When the TFR falls below 2.1 births per woman, population replacement becomes an issue unless offset by immigration.

Wall Street Journal calculations based on CDC data put the U.S. total fertility rate for last year at about 1.57 births per woman.

Global context and population outlook

Globally, fertility rates are trending downward, though the U.S. remains higher than many developed economies. The United Nations’ latest estimate shows global fertility continuing to decline toward replacement level in 2023, with more than half of countries below 2.1.

In the United States, births have largely stagnated while deaths continue to rise, dampening population growth momentum. In 2025, births slightly exceeded deaths by roughly 500,000. Projections from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Congressional Budget Office suggest this gap could disappear within the next decade, after which population growth would rely mainly on immigration.