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Bitcoin rose above $79,000 on Thursday for the first time since January, a move that has renewed investor interest. In a Friday report, VanEck analysts pointed to several on-chain and market indicators that, in past cycles, have preceded sizable price gains—raising the question of how far the current momentum can extend.
VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush examined on-chain data for the leading cryptocurrency and concluded that current technical conditions resemble those seen before strong increases in prior periods.
The first signal highlighted was the Bitcoin hash rate. It is currently 985.5 EH/s on a 30-day moving average, down 7.5% from the all-time high of 1,065.7 EH/s reached at the end of November. Over the past five months, the network has recorded at least three consecutive decline episodes, with the latest ending April 15 after 16 days of pressure and a maximum drop of 6.7%.
VanEck noted that the pattern behind these declines is important: of seven similar episodes, six were followed by a price increase within 90 days, with a median gain of 37.7%.
A second indicator cited was the funding rate, which fell to -1.8%, the lowest level since 2023. The report said negative funding has historically been associated with stronger subsequent returns.
Since 2020, periods of negative funding have produced an average return of 11.5% over 30 days, compared with 4.5% in normal conditions. When the funding rate dropped below -5%, gains rose to 19.4% over 30 days and up to 70% over 180 days.
VanEck also pointed to institutional behavior. After five consecutive weeks of capital outflows—totaling $4 billion between January 24 and February 21—spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded positive net flows in six of the last seven weeks, indicating a reversal in sentiment among major market participants.
On the activity side, transfers reached $48.5 billion daily, corresponding to the 81st historical percentile. However, transfers were down 5% over the past month, which the analysts described as a sign of easing volatility as the market “catches its breath.”
On-chain data relayed by Santiment was also used to assess market behavior near the $80,000 level. Large “whales” showed a resurgence of activity in recent days, a development that has often preceded significant price moves in the past, though it does not guarantee direction.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded around $78,100, down 0.8% on the day. Over the last 30 days, it is up more than 11%, according to CoinGecko.
VanEck’s assessment ties together multiple factors—hash rate dynamics, negative funding, renewed ETF inflows, and whale activity—into a single narrative of improving conditions. The report frames the key question as whether these indicators can translate into a sustained bullish phase, or whether broader macroeconomic uncertainty will limit follow-through.
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