Traffic through the Hormuz Strait has quadrupled over the past week as oil tankers cautiously resume movement. The daily number of trackable ships entering and leaving the Persian Gulf, based on the 7-day moving average from the Signal data platform, rose from about 1–2 voyages for most of the conflict to 8 voyages on July 1. On July 2, Hapag-Lloyd, one of the world’s largest container carriers, told the Financial Times that four ships previously stranded in the Persian Gulf have now left the area. Maersk said two of its vessels had also passed through the strait in the prior week. The uptick suggests shipowners believe they can transit the disputed waterway safely without being attacked. However, traffic remains well below pre-war levels. The rise reflects shippers’ desire to move ships stranded in the Gulf or to benefit from freight rates that are currently elevated. Iran has attacked two ships since signing the memorandum with the US last week. Yet Lloyd’s List Intelligence data show total entries and exits to and from the Gulf—including dark voyages—rose to 258 in the week to June 28, from 41 in the first week of the crisis in March. Dark voyages are harder to track because ships turn off GPS signals to avoid detection. The two main routes through Hormuz have been affected by Iran’s laying of mines. The International Maritime Organization estimated last week that about 80 mines would need to be cleared before the waterway could be used safely again. In the meantime, ships either follow the Iran-controlled route (which requires IRGC approval) or travel along the southern route hugging the Oman coast. Shipping executives and officials say the US and Oman are providing a degree of air protection for ships using the southern route. Lloyd’s List data indicate that most ships entering or leaving the Gulf in the past week were oil tankers; vessels leaving the area were mainly carrying cargo loaded before the conflict and then anchored at sea for storage. More than 60 vessels belong to Iran, as Tehran leverages exemptions from US sanctions on oil trade that had been shipped and stored at sea. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, head of Iran’s negotiating delegation, said on Tuesday that Iran had exported 40 million barrels of oil since the US lifted the blockade, at prices roughly 20% higher than before the conflict. Oil shipments from Gulf states are also rising. On Wednesday, several ADNOC tankers passed through Hormuz in convoy, following a downstream route along the Oman coast.
Brent crude has fallen back to levels seen before the conflict erupted, marking the first such retreat since the war began. Demand for tanker charters surged in the context of tight vessel supply, pushing the spot charter rate on the Hormuz route to $500,000 per day on June 23—the highest since early April. By July 1, the rate had declined to about $294,000 per day as more ships signaled readiness to pass Hormuz. James Reason of the insurer WTW said the insurance cost for ships has fallen to roughly 2% of their value (excluding discounts), well below the roughly 7% level seen when the ceasefire came into effect.
