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2025 marked a turning point for China’s lobster market, with total import volume hitting a record high and the supply landscape shifting quickly. In this wave, Vietnam’s lobster exports—especially blue lobsters—accelerated sharply, moving to the top position among suppliers and contributing meaningfully to the industry’s record export value.
China’s lobster consumption is increasingly polarized, according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Processors (VASEP). The value-conscious segment continues to buy cheaper products, while the high-end segment maintains solid purchasing power, supporting demand for large-size lobsters, live lobsters, and processed or ready-to-eat items.
VASEP also links the change to the expansion of modern retail, e-commerce, and restaurant chains, which helps move consumers away from the lowest-priced frozen lobster segment and creates room for premium offerings, including lobsters.
Because lobster demand is income-elastic, it tends to accelerate when demand for gourmet experiences improves. At the same time, consumer differentiation increases pressure on the mid-range segment, while high-end and convenient products continue to grow steadily—aligning with Vietnam’s strengths in quality, flexibility, and processing.
Citing data from China’s General Administration of Customs, VASEP said China imported 69,774 tons of lobsters in 2025, up from 60,834 tons in 2024.
In 2024, Canada was the largest supplier with 26,920 tons (about 44% of total imports), followed by Vietnam with 10,865 tons (about 18%). By 2025, the ranking reversed: Vietnam rose to lead with 24,067 tons (about 34.5% share), while Canada declined to 15,355 tons (about 22%).
The United States supplied 9,931 tons (14.2%), and Australia increased to 6,950 tons (roughly 10%), indicating China is diversifying its lobster sources.
One key driver of the change was tariff policy. From March 20, 2025, China imposed an additional 25% tariff on many Canadian seafood products, including lobsters. Because lobster is high-value but price-sensitive, the tariff reduced Canadian competitiveness and pushed importers to look for alternatives.
During the same period, Vietnam benefited from advantages including geographic proximity, shorter delivery times, shipment flexibility, and strong suitability for live or fresh products—an important factor in the lobster market.
Vietnamese customs data shows 2025 was a breakout year for Vietnamese lobster exports, particularly to China and Hong Kong. The total value of Vietnamese lobster exports to these two markets reached US$1.3 billion, up 55% from 2024.
Blue lobsters were the main growth driver, reaching US$840 million, up 131%. By January 2026, blue lobster exports to China and Hong Kong surpassed US$100 million, up 6% year-on-year, suggesting continued positive demand at the start of the year.
From March 1, 2026, China removed the 25% tariff on lobster and Canadian crabs under an agreement between the two countries. This is expected to trigger a new round of competition in the Chinese market. Canada is expected to seek to regain market share, particularly in high-end restaurant channels and gift markets, while Australia is also strengthening its presence as trade resumes.
At the same time, VASEP notes that Chinese consumption remains polarized: the high-end segment still has strong purchasing power, but consumers are increasingly price-conscious.
Despite strong export growth, VASEP said domestic lobster farming remains challenging. Competition from Australia, Canada, the United States, and Southeast Asian suppliers such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia is putting pressure on domestic prices. It also noted that when China lifts its ban on Australian lobsters, Vietnam’s market share could face additional pressure.
Beyond price, the Chinese market is tightening quality controls and processing-facility registration requirements. New regulations such as Order 280 are being enforced and could directly affect exports, especially for live products.
To sustain growth, VASEP said Vietnamese companies should monitor market trends by stabilizing quality, standardizing packaging, optimizing logistics for live or fresh products, and strengthening direct links with modern distribution networks.
VASEP characterized 2025 as a year when China was ready to buy aggressively as the high-end segment recovered. It added that 2026 will be a test of resilience, and that suppliers maintaining quality, delivery speed, and channel connectivity are more likely to hold market share.
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