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Vietnam’s stock market extended its strong momentum in April, rebounding after a sharp March decline and setting a favorable tone for Q2 2026. After an 11% drop in March, the VN-Index rose for four straight weeks, gaining 10.7% in April—the strongest monthly gain since August 2025.
The rebound was supported by a broad recovery across world markets, with several indices breaching prior highs during the pause in the US–Israel–Iran situation. Additional drivers included FTSE Russell’s confirmation that Vietnam will be upgraded to emerging market status effective September 2026, relatively positive Q1 earnings, and government measures aimed at supporting the economy—such as easing the policy rate corridor and raising the tax threshold for household businesses to 1 billion dong.
Despite the wider supportive backdrop, the April rebound was largely driven by real estate stocks. In April, VIC (+58.5%) and VHM (+41.7%) together contributed 167 points out of the VN-Index’s total 179-point increase. Excluding the Vingroup group, the VN-Index was almost flat in April, up 0.6%.
Outside real estate, the banking sector also posted gains, led by TCB (+10.3%), LPB (+12.9%), STB (+8.5%), and MSB (+8.2%).
In valuation terms, SSI Research said that as of end-April 2026, the VN-Index traded at a projected P/E of 13.2x, close to the 10-year average of 14.0x. If VIC, VHM, and VRE are excluded, the multiple falls to 10.3x.
Looking ahead, SSI Research noted that May may be a quieter information month for the market, given supportive items already in view—such as market upgrade prospects, positive Q1 earnings, oil price adjustments, and government support policies.
Total margin lending outstanding was about VND 424 trillion by end-March 2026, up 3% quarter-on-quarter and about 50% year-on-year. SSI Research said this increase corresponds to roughly 35% of foreign net selling value in the same period.
While margin debt to equity at brokerage firms remains manageable (around 102%), margin debt relative to free-float market capitalization on HOSE rose to 13.4% from 12.2% at end-2025 and 10.8% at end-2024.
SSI Research expects earnings growth to slow in coming quarters due to the combined effects of fuel prices and a high cost of capital, as well as a high base in Q2–Q3/2025. It cited that market NPATMI rose by more than 30% versus 21% in Q1/2025.
“All of the above factors may limit the upside for the market and increase volatility in the coming month,” SSI Research emphasized. “Nevertheless, sharp pullbacks, if they occur, could open opportunities to accumulate stocks at more attractive valuations for long-term investors.”
With liquidity typically waning in May, cash may favor mid-cap stocks with positive earnings prospects and attractive valuations.
Vietnam is highly likely to be included in MSCI’s Watchlist in the June 2026 review. The market currently meets 10/18 MSCI criteria and continues to improve on the remaining conditions.
Key developments cited include effective implementation of the Non-Prefunding mechanism, progress on the Central Clearing Counterparty (CCP) path as planned, and expansion of the instrument for short positions through VN30 index futures. SSI Research also noted that English-language disclosures from regulators and listed firms have improved.
On foreign ownership, actual foreign ownership on HOSE rose from 41.4% to 46% in April 2026, driven mainly by newly listed large-cap firms with 100% foreign ownership capacity. As a result, 17/18 MSCI criteria are now near the basic threshold.
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